Aluminum Facing 'Very Large Supply Hole,' JPM Says

Greg Shearer of JPMorgan discusses the aluminum market, highlighting the largest supply deficit since 2000. He expects prices to rise to $4,000 per ton near term and stay elevated around $3,500 through late 2026, though demand destruction may occur. A recession scenario could push prices down to $2,800. - JPMorgan forecasts a 2 million metric ton aluminum supply deficit (2.6% of the market). - The deficit is the largest relative shortfall since 2000. - Smelter restart times (up to a year) create a 'black hole' effect on supply. - Near-term aluminum price target is $4,000 per metric ton. - Prices are expected to settle around $3,500 in the second half of 2026. - High prices may cause demand destruction and substitution toward plastics. - A recession scenario could drive aluminum prices to approximately $2,800. - The Strait of Hormuz disruption is a key risk but not the only driver.