The Bull and Bear Case for SpaceX

Michael Monahan of Founder ETFs makes a bullish case for buying SpaceX at the IPO, emphasizing three distinct growth engines in Starlink, defense, and AI that could each become Fortune-class businesses, while Andrew of True North Advisors argues the valuation is priced to perfection with excessive founder risk and reveals plans to sell after a 50–60x private return. - SpaceX IPO is expected to be the largest ever. - Bull case: Starlink, defense, and AI/data as standalone Fortune 50–100 businesses pushing revenue to $200B by 2030. - Michael Monahan sees SpaceX as the lowest-cost AI compute provider and a sovereign closed AI network. - He highlights index inclusion (Russell, Nasdaq, S&P) and thin float as strong demand catalysts. - Bear case: current valuation requires unrealistic growth across all segments, including 200x AI revenue. - Andrew cites founder governance risk (Elon Musk holds 80% voting power) and competitive threats from state-backed rivals. - True North Advisors intends to exit public exposure after already capturing a 50–60x gain in private markets. - AI capex sustainability and broader competitive dynamics remain key debates around the IPO.