ALGO ESTÁ MUDANDO NOS ÚLTIMOS DIAS
Спикеры
Fernando Ulrich
— Финансовый обозреватель, независимый
Fernando Ulrich argues the market is increasingly pricing a possible Flávio Bolsonaro win in Brazil's 2026 presidential election. He contrasts the candidates' economic programs and details Brazil's worsening fiscal and debt profile. If Flávio wins, he expects the dollar to fall, Ibovespa to rally, and local interest rates to decline. He also highlights large funds positioning for that scenario through EWZ call options.
- Flávio Bolsonaro is presented as much more pro-market than Lula, especially on state vs market and fiscal adjustment.
- Brazil's debt profile is deteriorating, with more than half of public debt linked to the Selic rate and falling fiscal credibility.
- The conditional market scenario for a Flávio victory includes a stronger real, higher Ibovespa, and lower future interest rates.
- Recent polls show a much tighter 2026 race than 2022, leaving the election outcome open.
- Large funds are using EWZ derivatives to bet on a post-election rally and a weaker dollar.
- The election outcome and actual reform execution remain uncertain.
Идеи
Flávio victory would weaken dollar
A victory by Flávio Bolsonaro would likely trigger a sharp drop in the dollar against the real. Ulrich argues the market would price a positive fiscal credibility shock from a more pro-market government, while the external backdrop of the Trump administration and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wanting a weaker dollar would reinforce BRL strength.
Flávio victory would lift Brazilian stocks
A Flávio Bolsonaro victory would lift the Brazilian stock market broadly, not just large companies and banks such as Vale, Petrobras and large banks. Ulrich notes the Ibovespa fell from nearly 200,000 points in April to 166,000 in August when Lula looked stronger, and has already recovered above 174,000 as Flávio's odds improve; a more market-friendly government would bring more sensible macroeconomic policies and further upside.
Flávio victory would lower Brazilian rates
Brazilian future interest rates, such as the DI 2035 contract still stubbornly above 14%, would fall under a Flávio government that signals real fiscal control, administrative and pension reforms, and discretionary spending discipline. That regained credibility would open space for the central bank to reduce the Selic rate faster and could start a virtuous economic cycle, with the market pricing it through lower long-term rates.
EWZ options capture rally and dollar drop
Large funds are positioning for a post-election rally through EWZ call options, according to Ulrich. EWZ is the dollar-denominated ETF for Brazilian equities, so it benefits from both a rising Brazilian stock market and a falling dollar in the Flávio victory scenario, and the derivatives activity shows the market is increasing these election bets.
Далее
This Fernando Ulrich video, published August 26, 2026, features Fernando Ulrich discussing USD/BRL, BOVA11.SA, DI Futuro 2035, EWZ. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Fernando Ulrich · Tickers: USD/BRL, BOVA11.SA, DI Futuro 2035, EWZ