The Setup for a Massive Q4 Bitcoin Rally Is Here
Спикеры
David Duong
— Глава отдела институциональных исследований, Coinbase
David Duong joins John Gillen to break down Bitcoin's breakout above $72K and the macro setup into Q4. Duong argues Bitcoin's bottom is already in and expects a sustained rally starting late Q3 or early Q4, with BTC above $100K by year-end. He sees the rally as discount and momentum rather than a new debasement trade, and expects selective altcoin strength led by quality assets like Ethereum and event-driven names like Hyperliquid. He also views long-end Treasury yields as having peaked and does not expect a Fed rate hike.
- Bitcoin broke above $72K with Ethereum and Solana also rallying sharply.
- Duong says Bitcoin likely bottomed between $55K and $60K and that ETF inflows are returning.
- He expects a sustained Bitcoin rally into late Q3 or early Q4, with BTC above $100K by year-end.
- Treasury buybacks are seen as an activist effort to manage the long end of the curve.
- Duong does not expect a Fed rate hike this year and sees a disinflationary trend.
- Altcoin strength is expected to be selective, favoring quality assets like Ethereum.
- Hyperliquid is highlighted as a regulation-driven setup after its White House mention.
- The market is in a traders market, driven by discounts and momentum rather than a new debasement narrative.
Идеи
Bitcoin bottom in, rally into Q4
David believes Bitcoin's bottom is already in, likely between $55K and $60K. He sees seller exhaustion, returning ETF inflows, and structural buyers as signs the final capitulation has already happened. He expects flows to turn consistently positive over the next 6-8 weeks and a sustained rally to begin late in Q3 or early Q4, after Jackson Hole, with Bitcoin crossing above $100K by year-end.
Long-end Treasury yields have peaked
David thinks the peak in long-end Treasury yields has already been seen. He argues the Treasury under Bessent is actively managing the long end of the curve via buybacks and has more firepower if needed, so he would take the other side of critics calling the buyback a bluff.
Gold cheap after pullback, direction higher
Gold is not being driven by a new debasement trade, but after rallying over 10%, gold around $4,000 looks cheap enough for traders to take a punt. He expects gold to move directionally higher, though not with the same appreciation as the previous rally.
Ethereum is quality, selective altcoin recovery
Within altcoins, capital will remain selective and favor quality. Areas with clearer institutional or revenue hooks, including particular L1/L2 infrastructure with real usage like Ethereum, should be seen by investors as higher quality and attract more sustainable interest rather than pure narrative plays.
Hyperliquid has White House regulatory catalyst
Hyperliquid benefited from being mentioned by name at the White House meetings. If the CFTC and SEC create a path for US-compliant perpetual futures, Hyperliquid could extend to many products and become a new instrument for US traders, creating a major event-driven setup.
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This Milk Road Macro video, published August 21, 2026, features David Duong discussing BTC, US 30Y Treasury Bond, US 10Y Treasury Bond, GLD, ETH, HYPE. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: David Duong · Tickers: BTC, US 30Y Treasury Bond, US 10Y Treasury Bond, GLD, ETH, HYPE