u/Woberwob

The author bought MSFT under $400 and is now celebrating a price recovery, implying they expect further upside. The post’s “rain dance” celebrates a short-term win, but the core advice is to hold for the long haul. This suggests a conviction that MSFT will continue to appreciate. A long-term bullish stance on MSFT based on the author’s personal entry and psychological discipline, though lacking fundamental analysis. Macro headwinds (tech regulation, AI competition, economic slowdown) could reverse gains; no valuation anchor is provided.

Meta’s core ad business generates massive free cash flow; CapEx spikes for compute are temporary and historically lead to revenue gains from AI‑improved targeting. Wall Street panics over short‑term margin compression, creating a dip that has repeatedly been followed by earnings acceleration 18 months later. Buy the dip on the “Zuckerberg cycle” – the CapEx spending will eventually fuel higher ad revenue, and current valuation (low P/E vs. peers) offers a favorable entry. CapEx continues to balloon without revenue payoff; regulatory headwinds; Zuck’s track record of wasteful spending may persist; macro slowdown hurts ad spending.