u/Tallwhitedude123

Author sees Fed stepping in to control yields as the likely path, which would debase the dollar and fuel inflation. Gold rallied on exactly this fear, making it a hedge against QE and currency debasement. Long gold as a macro hedge if the Fed chooses monetization over austerity. If the government pivots to austerity or resolves inflation via policy changes, gold could fade.

Long-dated Treasury yields are rising to decade highs despite official efforts to cap them. If yields remain untethered, long-duration Treasury prices fall; TLT is the liquid way to express that. Short long-dated bonds while structural buyer demand remains weak. Fed intervention through QE/bond buying could force yields down instead and squeeze shorts.

Strong fundamentals cited: >80% margins, ~24x PE, ~18x forward PE, >50% revenue growth, large buybacks, low debt, SEC investigation dropped. If growth is merely 30%+ per management guidance and e-commerce ads gain any traction, current valuation offers a favorable risk/reward with margin of safety. Long APP as a quality growth compounder trading at a reasonable valuation, with optional upside from e-commerce advertising TAM. Heavy dependence on Alphabet/Apple ecosystems; deceleration in revenue growth; e-commerce ads could fail to gain meaningful traction; multiple compression if high growth slows faster than expected.