u/sqlgenius

AI (Claude) can accurately complete complex tax returns for $0, replicating the core function of TurboTax. Intuit's stock is already down 50% from its peak on AI fears, but the author compares it to other disrupted companies (Chegg, Shutterstock) that fell 90%+. The market valuation ($INTU at 2022 trough prices) does not yet price in a complete collapse of the TurboTax segment, which constitutes 29% of revenue. Consumer adoption of free AI tools could cause a severe earnings miss. TurboTax's business model is "cooked." Revenue will decline, and the market will reprice the stock lower ahead of or during the next tax season (Q1 earnings). QuickBooks (59% of revenue) may remain resilient. Intuit has AI partnerships (Anthropic, OpenAI). Legal e-filing barriers protect Intuit. Consumer inertia, trust in branded software, and marketing power may slow adoption.