u/SekaiWithTheWolfCap

Disney trades at a P/E of ~15, near historical lows, with management guiding double‑digit EPS growth for FY2026/27 and announcing an $8B+ buyback. A low implied growth rate (4–11%) from a reverse DCF suggests the market is pricing in pessimistic outcomes, but if earnings grow as guided and buybacks reduce share count, the stock could re‑rate higher. The author believes Disney is a value play at current levels, driven by streaming profitability, experiences cash flow, and potential AI‑led margin expansion, making a long position attractive for patient investors. Continued box‑office weakness, AI failing to cut costs fast enough, consumer spending pullback on experiences/streaming, high debt from Fox acquisition, and execution risk on buybacks.