u/Salt-Maize787

Reddit’s FY2026 net income projected at $1.02B; author strips out $100M AI deal and applies 30% tax to get $995M net income with 32.5% margins. Additional $450M in AI deals from Google, Anthropic, OpenAI (after 30% tax = $315M net) would boost total net income to $1.81B, supporting a 45x P/E → $83.2B market cap → $428 share price. The author believes Reddit’s scalable ad model and AI data-licensing revenue create a near-term triple-up opportunity. Growth slowing below 45%, AI deals not renewed at stated values, multiple compression if interest rates rise or earnings disappoint, margin erosion from higher content moderation/costs.