u/Nike_J

AMD’s P/E is ~170, requiring roughly 5x profit growth to reach a 30-45 P/E, implying $200B revenue or 20% of a $1T TAM by 2030. Margins are structurally lower than Nvidia’s because AMD uses a more expensive node, packs more HBM (which is in short supply), and sells at a discount. This pressure makes hitting that profit target unlikely. The current rally is not supported by fundamentals; the author’s intuition says SELL, and the data suggests AMD is priced for perfection it may not achieve. AI demand could accelerate beyond forecasts; AMD may gain market share if ROCm matures or if hyperscalers diversify away from Nvidia; the P/E metric may be irrelevant for hypergrowth stocks (as commenters note).