Author places high probability on MSTR falling to ~$40 in 8-12 weeks because MSTR is tied to Bitcoin. MSTR’s valuation is sensitive to both BTC price and mNav, so a BTC decline should compress the share price. Direct shorting MSTR is an alternative to MSTZ if the bearish thesis plays out. MSTR’s large USD reserve could slow the decline; Bitcoin may find a bottom sooner than expected.
Author places high probability on MSTR falling to ~$40 in 8-12 weeks because MSTR is tied to Bitcoin. MSTR’s valuation is sensitive to both BTC price and mNav, so a BTC decline should compress the share price. Direct shorting MSTR is an alternative to MSTZ if the bearish thesis plays out. MSTR’s large USD reserve could slow the decline; Bitcoin may find a bottom sooner than expected.
Author expects Bitcoin to decline and MSTR to fall to ~$40 based on technicals and liquidity indicators. MSTZ is a leveraged inverse MSTR ETF, so it profits if MSTR drops. Long MSTZ is the author’s explicit intended vehicle to express the bearish MSTR view. Bitcoin could bottom sooner; Treasury yields could fall and spark a liquidity pump; MSTR’s USD reserves may limit downside.
Author expects Bitcoin to decline and MSTR to fall to ~$40 based on technicals and liquidity indicators. MSTZ is a leveraged inverse MSTR ETF, so it profits if MSTR drops. Long MSTZ is the author’s explicit intended vehicle to express the bearish MSTR view. Bitcoin could bottom sooner; Treasury yields could fall and spark a liquidity pump; MSTR’s USD reserves may limit downside.