Core ad business can drive 15% revenue growth even without AI upside, with margins recovering to 25%. Market overweights AI capex risk, creating upside if ads business holds and AI spend is cut rationally. Long-term value opportunity in Meta’s core ads franchise despite AI uncertainty. AI spend stays elevated; margins compress beyond forecast; ad growth slows; regulatory/competitive pressure.
Core ad business can drive 15% revenue growth even without AI upside, with margins recovering to 25%. Market overweights AI capex risk, creating upside if ads business holds and AI spend is cut rationally. Long-term value opportunity in Meta’s core ads franchise despite AI uncertainty. AI spend stays elevated; margins compress beyond forecast; ad growth slows; regulatory/competitive pressure.