u/Iamthebigwig

VRRM lost ~$140M in Avis revenue but secured $1.15B in new government contracts (NYC $998M, Hawaii $160M) that haven't yet scaled; Q1 2026 net income positive at $26.7M. The 70% price drop prices in bankruptcy risk, but the company still guides $985M–$995M revenue and $380M–$385M Adjusted EBITDA, implying a deeply compressed EV/EBITDA multiple. Buying a cash-flow-positive technology monopoly at a generational discount, with a clear catalyst as government contract revenue ramps and cost restructuring protects margins. Avis may accelerate litigation or further contracts could churn; government contract implementation delays; new CEO may not execute cost cuts as quickly as expected.