u/Hungry_Confection108

Novo’s current PE of ~20x at €38 reflects structural decline fears, but obesity market growth and EU rollout of oral Wegovy provide upside; the author targets €55-60 by year-end. Market pessimism over price cuts and LLY competition is overdone; Novo’s scale and manufacturing could make it the low-cost leader, insulating margins and driving re-rating. Buy NVO as a contrarian value play with catalysts in Q3/Q4 2026; the stock offers a hedge against AI hype and economic downturn due to defensive healthcare exposure. Eli Lilly’s superior pipeline (retatrutide) could erode market share; regulatory hurdles for CagriSema; obesity drug pricing compression worse than expected; currency risk (EUR/DKK).