u/Haboubiii

Author holds 50x QQQ 570-strike put options expiring 1/05. Author believes "tech gets hit the most" from the coming oil-driven inflation and economic disruption, leading to a market drop. Direct short position on the Nasdaq-100 via long-dated puts to bet on a significant tech sell-off. Market remains "irrational" and continues upward (bull trap on macro level); tech sector could prove resilient; geopolitical situation resolves faster than expected.

Strait of Hormuz remains closed after a ceasefire breakdown, creating a physical oil supply disruption. The market has not fully priced in the coming shortage; the price drop was a "bull trap" and the real economic impact (higher prices) will be felt in North America within a week. Buy calls on oil (implied via USO) as supply shock will drive prices higher. Ceasefire could be re-established; Strait could reopen quickly; other sources could offset supply; market may have already priced in the risk.