u/Grffin721

Grindr has 15M MAU, 67 minutes/day engagement, Q1 2026 revenue growth of 38% YoY, ~45% adjusted EBITDA margins, and management raised 2026 guidance to $535M revenue / $227M EBITDA. At a $3.4B market cap, it trades around 15x EBITDA. The market treats Grindr like a niche dating app, but the engagement, demographics, and vertical expansions into AI matching and telehealth (ED pills, HIV prep) suggest a uniquely monetizable user base. That gap could drive re-rating, with a squeeze adding upside. Long GRND as a high-growth compounder with squeeze optionality; the setup is compelling but not low-risk. Limited TAM — the number of gay users is not growing exponentially; competition and platform/regulatory risk; aggressive DCF assumptions; short squeeze may fail to materialize or reverse violently.