u/Goldenmentis

Geopolitical supply shock events (Israeli strikes, Hormuz closure, pipeline attack) historically cause oil price spikes, but prices are falling sharply. The author perceives this as a market mispricing or delayed reaction, creating a potential mean-reversion opportunity. If the market is wrongly ignoring clear supply risks, oil is due for a rebound as the reality of the situation sets in. The market may be pricing in a swift resolution, demand destruction, large inventory releases, or may have already priced in the risk premium earlier. Comments suggest narrative follows price, not news.