Сигналы
3
u/Forget_me_never
Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Винрейт
66.7%
доходность
+4.2%
Загрузка графиков...
Тикер
Сторона
Упоминания
Первый колл
Цена колла
P&L
Тезис
Тема
Источник
Шорт
06 авг
$484.62
-1.3%
$24B of MSFT’s $37B AI revenue comes from OpenAI; ChatGPT usage fell 50–70% during school breaks. If OpenAI weakens, MSFT’s reported AI growth and the broader “AI trade” narrative face downside risk. Bearish on MSFT’s AI revenue quality; a short or monitoring position is justified until the circularity risk is clearer. Microsoft’s broader cloud/software business is strong; contracts may be locked in; AI demand could re-accelerate.
$24B of MSFT’s $37B AI revenue comes from OpenAI; ChatGPT usage fell 50–70% during school breaks. If OpenAI weakens, MSFT’s reported AI growth and the broader “AI trade” narrative face downside risk. Bearish on MSFT’s AI revenue quality; a short or monitoring position is justified until the circularity risk is clearer. Microsoft’s broader cloud/software business is strong; contracts may be locked in; AI demand could re-accelerate.
Гиперскейлеры
Шорт
10 июн
$944.31
+3.2%
The author observes that memory suppliers like Micron are experiencing a temporary demand spike from data center builds, similar to the pandemic-era demand surge for PayPal. When data center investment slows (as with xAI renting out excess capacity and potential order cancellations), the extrapolated growth will reverse, leading to a sharp price decline. Short Micron as a cyclical overvaluation play, betting on mean reversion once the data center capex cycle peaks.
The author observes that memory suppliers like Micron are experiencing a temporary demand spike from data center builds, similar to the pandemic-era demand surge for PayPal. When data center investment slows (as with xAI renting out excess capacity and potential order cancellations), the extrapolated growth will reverse, leading to a sharp price decline. Short Micron as a cyclical overvaluation play, betting on mean reversion once the data center capex cycle peaks.
Память для ИИ
Шорт
10 июн
$508.40
+10.5%
The author specifically names Sandisk (Western Digital) as another equipment supplier with inflated valuations due to the same temporary demand. As data center investment normalizes, excess inventory and canceled orders will hurt WDC’s revenue and margins, triggering a share price drop. Short Western Digital as a paired trade with Micron, following the same cyclical reversal thesis.
The author specifically names Sandisk (Western Digital) as another equipment supplier with inflated valuations due to the same temporary demand. As data center investment normalizes, excess inventory and canceled orders will hurt WDC’s revenue and margins, triggering a share price drop. Short Western Digital as a paired trade with Micron, following the same cyclical reversal thesis.
Память для ИИ
Показано 3 из 3 коллов · сортировка по упоминаниям
Выберите число упоминаний, чтобы открыть посты по тикеру.
У u/Forget_me_never на Buzzberg отслеживается 3 торговых идей по 3 тикерам с июня 2026. Чаще всего покрывает: MSFT, MU, WDC.
