u/FederalPermission261

VITL revenue $759mm, 47% ROIC, stock down 80%; DCF yields $19.45 intrinsic value vs. $10 market price; insiders bought at $18–20; $80mm buyback on $440mm market cap. Market overreacted to cyclical wholesale egg price crash (from $8 to $0.21/dozen) and near-zero 2026 EBITDA. Margins expected to recover in FY27 (4% EBIT), and terminal margin of 8.6% is below past peaks – creating significant upside once earnings normalize. Long VITL as a cyclical value play with brand moat and capital returns, betting on margin recovery and/or multiple expansion as the market reprices the stock. Cal-Maine’s $400mm specialty egg acquisition could commoditize pasture-raised eggs, compressing VITL’s terminal margins below model. If egg wholesale prices stay low or brand loyalty erodes, intrinsic value could fall below $8 (bear case).