u/daxter_101

Microsoft is increasing AI capex while still generating positive free cash flow, unlike some other big tech peers. This reinforces the narrative that AI spending can be profitable, supporting Microsoft’s valuation and growth outlook. Long MSFT on the thesis that disciplined AI investment will drive sustainable earnings and cash flow. AI returns disappoint; capex ramp squeezes margins; regulatory or competitive pressures emerge.

TSEM owns the only production SiPho PDK, serving major tech clients, and has a highly restricted tradable float of roughly 35M shares. The combination of 70% YoY SiPho growth, a new NVIDIA partnership, and near-zero analyst coverage means any buying pressure will hit a severely limited supply of shares. Go long on TSEM ahead of May Q1 earnings to capture a violent upward re-rate driven by float dynamics and AI photonics demand. The float calculation may be inaccurate, institutional lock-ups could expire, or the broader semiconductor sector could drag the stock down despite its perceived "structural floor."