u/cherrypoplar

Treasury buybacks reduce long-end supply, which supports long Treasury prices; Fed is not involved. Less long-duration supply is a direct tailwind for TLT, separate from any Fed QE expectations. Long TLT as a duration trade on Treasury debt-management operations. Fed balance-sheet policy shifts, inflation surprise, or Treasury changing buyback mix.

The author alleges NASDAQ-100 is changing its rules to allow inclusion after 15 days and to artificially inflate the market cap of low-float stocks by 5x for weighting purposes. Upon its IPO, SpaceX will have a small float. The rule changes will force NASDAQ-100 passive funds (like QQQ) to chase these scarce shares at a valuation five times higher than their actual float suggests, causing a massive price spike and benefiting insiders selling into this manufactured demand. The author believes the NASDAQ-100 is being used as "jet fuel" to artificially inflate SpaceX's share price, which is fundamentally negative for investors in the index who are forced to buy at these distorted prices. The NASDAQ-100 rule changes may not be implemented as described. The 5x float inflation rule might be misinterpreted or have safeguards. The market may price in these mechanics, or regulators could intervene.

The author claims S&P is changing its rules to allow immediate inclusion of large-cap IPOs, removing the 12-month waiting period. This change will force S&P 500 passive funds (like SPY) to buy a massive, newly-listed company (SpaceX) at a potentially inflated IPO price. This forced buying from a limited float will transfer wealth from passive investors to SpaceX insiders, negatively impacting the fund's value relative to the risk taken. The author implies that the S&P 500 index is being manipulated to serve as exit liquidity for large private companies, which is detrimental to the interests of passive retail investors holding the index. This suggests a bearish outlook on the index itself. The S&P rule change may not happen or may have different terms. SpaceX may not IPO or may not qualify for immediate inclusion. The impact of a single new company, even one as large as SpaceX, may be diluted across the entire index and not have a significant negative effect.