u/BetApprehensive8433

The author believes a potential US-Iran conflict is not adequately priced into the market and will be a major geopolitical shock. Such a conflict, potentially involving Russia and China and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, would cause widespread market panic and a sharp downturn in the overall market, represented by the S&P 500. The author has purchased very short-dated, far out-of-the-money SPY puts, betting on a rapid and severe market crash triggered by this geopolitical event. The conflict may not happen, it could be resolved quickly, or the market could ignore it. The short-dated puts are extremely high-risk and will expire worthless if the event doesn't occur within the 14-day timeframe.