u/beerion

Author states Joby and EVTL are the only eVTOL companies flying transition flights; Joby is the stronger franchise and author “would rather buy more Joby right here.” As EVTL stumbles on financing and timeline execution, capital and investor attention may consolidate toward the clearer leader in eVTOL. Relative value favors Joby over EVTL in the eVTOL space, especially given EVTL’s messy liabilities. eVTOL certification delays, dilution needs, and prolonged capital-intensive development could hit JOBY too.

Reverse DCF implies only 4% earnings growth needed to justify current price; price hikes alone can deliver 3-5% revenue growth, and operating leverage can amplify to 8-10% earnings growth. Market may be discounting Netflix’s ability to sustain mid-single-digit revenue growth through price increases, ad revenue, international expansion, and AI cost savings, creating a margin of safety. Even if user growth stalls, moderate revenue growth combined with flat-to-slightly-rising content costs can produce double-digit annualized returns over the next few years. Subscriber growth decelerates faster than expected; ad revenue disappoints; content cost inflation outpaces revenue; competitive pressures from streaming rivals.