u/ajkomajko

Q1 2026 EPS of $1.01 vs consensus $0.62 and above Q1 2027 consensus of $0.98; incremental net income margin hit 65.7% vs analysts’ modeled ~30% stagnation. Analysts are structurally underestimating margin expansion as revenue scales with minimal incremental cost (91% gross margin, $1M capex, free labor). This mismatch creates a multi-year earnings beat cycle. Long RDDT on underestimated earnings power and multiple catalysts (Anthropic settlement, S&P 500 inclusion, improving DAU trends). Upside to consensus estimates likely continues. NOL expiration raises tax-adjusted floor to ~50% margin; DAU growth stalls; legal/regulatory setbacks; tech sell-off.

NLB trades at 9.1x 2025 earnings and 1.2x book, offering a 5.6% dividend yield and 8.2% organic earnings growth. Low loan-to-GDP ratios in the Balkans provide a structural growth runway, while a remarkably low deposit beta (12%) gives the bank immense pricing power and a levered inflation hedge. The stock offers a highly attractive ~13.8% gross annual long-term return for investors willing to look past the CEE/Balkan risk perception and illiquidity discount. Political and FX risks in Serbia, long-term threat from Revolut capturing younger depositors, and execution risks regarding the Addiko Bank acquisition.