Lee Kyung-soo

In the May MSCI review, Korea's weight in emerging market indices is expected to jump from ~16% to ~24-25%, triggering passive inflows. Additionally, Korea has a 60-70% chance of being added to the MSCI developed market watchlist, which would lead to eventual index inclusion and a structural increase in foreign allocation. The government is actively addressing key requirements like 24-hour FX trading and improved disclosures.

The semiconductor cycle is in a late stage, but historically the late cycle has the highest price momentum, often exceeding 50% of the entire rally. The cycle is not over until a 20% peak-to-trough decline occurs. Earnings continue to improve through 2025, and the correlation between Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remains high. Investors should not sell too early.

The semiconductor cycle is in a late stage, but historically the late cycle has the highest price momentum, often exceeding 50% of the entire rally. The cycle is not over until a 20% peak-to-trough decline occurs. Earnings continue to improve through 2025, and the correlation between Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remains high. Investors should not sell too early.

In a rising-rate environment, global capital is rotating into hardware/technology stocks that offer cheap valuations, high quality, and strong cash flows, while software stocks underperform. This structural preference benefits semiconductor and storage companies such as Micron and Western Digital, which have been outperforming the S&P 500.

Biotech and pharma earnings have been okay, with earnings estimate revisions rising for about one to two weeks. As rates fall and risk appetite recovers, beaten-down biotech/pharma names are rebounding and can participate in the rotation away from semiconductors.

Space X готовится войти в индекс Nasdaq 100 после завершения периода оценки на этой неделе, при этом фактическое включение на следующей неделе спровоцирует покупки со стороны пассивных индексных фондов. Слабость на этой неделе, вероятно, является процессом достижения дна, а приток капитала, обусловленный включением в индекс, в сочетании с практикой хедж-фондов завышать цены для последующей продажи индексным фондам, создает краткосрочную позитивную конъюнктуру для Nasdaq 100.

В условиях высоких процентных ставок единственным защитным активом в рамках темы ИИ является аппаратное обеспечение (полупроводники). Импульс роста доходов производителей чипов для ИИ в мире остается сильным: NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Samsung и SK Hynix демонстрируют пересмотр прогнозов по доходам в сторону повышения. Настроения инвесторов продолжат смещаться в сторону компаний, производящих аппаратное обеспечение, которые служат «тихой гаванью» в сфере ИИ.

In a rising-rate environment, global capital is rotating into hardware/technology stocks that offer cheap valuations, high quality, and strong cash flows, while software stocks underperform. This structural preference benefits semiconductor and storage companies such as Micron and Western Digital, which have been outperforming the S&P 500.