Charles Meyers

Meyers predicts that if diplomacy fails by April, the US will launch a major "shock and awe" military campaign against Iran to decapitate the regime. Conversely, the Trump administration has an explicit energy policy to drive oil prices down to the low $50s later in the year via increased supply from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. A kinetic war in April creates a massive geopolitical risk premium (spike) in oil. However, once the conflict resolves or supply chains open up (Venezuela/Russia), the "flood of oil" strategy will crash prices to address US inflation. LONG oil into April for the war premium; SHORT oil later in the year targeting the $50 range. Diplomacy succeeds with Iran (no spike), or global demand collapses faster than supply increases.

Meyers predicts that if diplomacy fails by April, the US will launch a major "shock and awe" military campaign against Iran to decapitate the regime. Conversely, the Trump administration has an explicit energy policy to drive oil prices down to the low $50s later in the year via increased supply from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. A kinetic war in April creates a massive geopolitical risk premium (spike) in oil. However, once the conflict resolves or supply chains open up (Venezuela/Russia), the "flood of oil" strategy will crash prices to address US inflation. LONG oil into April for the war premium; SHORT oil later in the year targeting the $50 range. Diplomacy succeeds with Iran (no spike), or global demand collapses faster than supply increases.

Meyers states that while there is a painful rolling correction in AI software and infrastructure, "two or three national champions" will emerge. He explicitly names Google as having "incredible technology and the resources to keep building." While speculative AI companies face valuation resets, established players with deep resources and government alignment (National Champions) will consolidate the market. LONG Google as the survivor/winner of the AI shakeout. Regulatory breakup actions or failure to compete with agile startups.

Global investors are engaging in a "Sell America" theme due to fears of institutional damage (Fed independence, election integrity). Meyers argues these fears are "overdone" and the US economy will grow at 3%. Sentiment is bearish while fundamentals (growth, rule of law, independent Fed) remain strong. This divergence creates an opportunity to stay long while others irrationally de-risk. LONG US assets; do not reduce overweight positions despite negative global sentiment. Genuine institutional failure or a constitutional crisis in the US.

Global investors are engaging in a "Sell America" theme due to fears of institutional damage (Fed independence, election integrity). Meyers argues these fears are "overdone" and the US economy will grow at 3%. Sentiment is bearish while fundamentals (growth, rule of law, independent Fed) remain strong. This divergence creates an opportunity to stay long while others irrationally de-risk. LONG US assets; do not reduce overweight positions despite negative global sentiment. Genuine institutional failure or a constitutional crisis in the US.

Meyers predicts that if diplomacy fails by April, the US will launch a major "shock and awe" military campaign against Iran to decapitate the regime. Conversely, the Trump administration has an explicit energy policy to drive oil prices down to the low $50s later in the year via increased supply from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. A kinetic war in April creates a massive geopolitical risk premium (spike) in oil. However, once the conflict resolves or supply chains open up (Venezuela/Russia), the "flood of oil" strategy will crash prices to address US inflation. LONG oil into April for the war premium; SHORT oil later in the year targeting the $50 range. Diplomacy succeeds with Iran (no spike), or global demand collapses faster than supply increases.

The US is pivoting its Venezuela strategy purely to oil production ("It's about oil"), abandoning moralistic regime change for economic pragmatism. Meyers predicts Venezuela's income stream will grow faster than estimates. The removal of effective sanctions to prioritize oil supply guarantees revenue for the country and the companies operating there. Meyers calls the outlook "incredibly bright." LONG Venezuelan assets (bonds/oil infrastructure) as they re-enter the global economy. Re-imposition of strict sanctions or internal civil unrest.