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TXN
FY2025 Q4
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Отчётный звонок Texas Instruments Incorporated
Вывод Buzzberg
Data center revenue grew ~70% YoY, expected to keep growing
TXN reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.4B, in line with expectations, with strong year-on-year growth in analog and data center. Q1 2026 guidance of $4.32-4.68B is above typical seasonality, driven by improving orders and data center momentum. Management emphasized that industrial is still well below prior peaks, implying further recovery potential, and highlighted their inventory and capacity as competitive advantages to capture just-in-time demand. Q4 revenue $4.4B (-7% QoQ, +10% YoY), EPS $1.27 (incl. $0.06 impairment).
Вывод Buzzberg Data center revenue grew ~70% YoY, expected to keep growing TXN reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.4B, in line with expectations, with strong year-on-year growth in analog and data center. Q1 2026 guidance of $4.32-4.68B is above typical seasonality, driven by improving orders and data center momentum. Management emphasized that industrial is still well below prior peaks, implying further recovery potential, and highlighted their inventory and capacity as competitive advantages to capture just-in-time demand. Q4 revenue $4.4B (-7% QoQ, +10% YoY), EPS $1.27 (incl. $0.06 impairment). Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
TXN reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.4B, in line with expectations, with strong year-on-year growth in analog and data center. Q1 2026 guidance of $4.32-4.68B is above typical seasonality, driven by improving orders and data center momentum. Management emphasized that industrial is still well below prior peaks, implying further recovery potential, and highlighted their inventory and capacity as competitive advantages to capture just-in-time demand. Q4 revenue $4.4B (-7% QoQ, +10% YoY), EPS $1.27 (incl. $0.06 impairment).
- Q1 2026 revenue guide $4.32-4.68B (above seasonal low-single-digit flat), EPS $1.22-1.48.
- Full-year 2025: industrial $5.8B (33%), auto $5.8B (33%), data center $1.5B (9%).
- Data center grew ~70% YoY in Q4 and 64% for the full year; TI now sampling V-core power management products.
AUTOMOTIVE Выручка$5.8BФакт
COMMUNICATIONS_EQUIPMENT Выручка$0.5BФакт
DATA_CENTER Выручка$1.5BФакт
INDUSTRIAL Выручка$5.8BФакт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Guidance
Q1 guidance above seasonality, driven by stronger bookings
Demand
Industrial recovery continuing but still ~25% below 2022 peak
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Pricing
2026 pricing assumed down 2-3%, not driving Q1 strength
Capex
Capex to be $2-3B in 2026, nearing end of elevated cycle
Supply
Inventory level considered an asset to meet real-time demand
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| AUTOMOTIVE Выручка | $5.8B | Факт |
| COMMUNICATIONS_EQUIPMENT Выручка | $0.5B | Факт |
| DATA_CENTER Выручка | $1.5B | Факт |
| INDUSTRIAL Выручка | $5.8B | Факт |
| PERSONAL_ELECTRONICS Выручка | $3.7B | Факт |
| Выручка | $4.423B | -7% к/к |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Капзатраты | FY2026 | $2B–$3B | $2.5B | Подтверждён |
| EPS | FY2026 Q1 | $1.22–$1.48 | $1.35 | Обозначен |
| Выручка | FY2026 Q1 | $4.32B–$4.68B | $4.5B | Обозначен |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Measuredly Confident
Management expressed optimism about a continuing recovery and strong data center growth, while remaining cautious about sustainability of order improvements and noting industrial still below prior peak.
Инвестиции и мощности
Management highlighted nearing the end of a six-year elevated capex cycle, with 2026 capex expected between $2 and $3 billion, and emphasized that the CHIPS Act investment tax credit rising to 35% will offset capital intensity. They noted progress on the Sherman fab (ahead of schedule) and Lehigh fab insourcing, positioning for dependable low-cost 300mm capacity.
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 5
Industrial revenue remains ~25% below its 2022 peak, implying substantial room for further recovery as secular content growth continues.
Доказательства
“even if I go back to Q3, which was the highest industrial quarter for 2025, it was still about 25% from the previous peaks in year 2022.”
TI is sampling a new V-core voltage regulator for data center, built on its own BCD process in Sherman, expanding its addressable content in power management.
Доказательства
“the V-Core ... is where a lot of the current going into an accelerated computer or a CPU comes from, and TI is building the technology in Sherman ... That product is sampling.”
TI sees no plans for a step-function price increase in Q1 2026, unlike some peers, maintaining an assumption of low-single-digit annual price erosion.
Доказательства
“Q1 pricing usually goes down a little bit because of yearly negotiations. That's usually what we see in Q1.”
The company built an 'inventory buffer' that allowed it to fulfill a surge in last-minute (turns) orders in Q4, a capability that may differentiate TI when supply tightens.
Доказательства
“we are very pleased with the inventory position we have built... that's an asset that allows us to serve customers, especially in the current environment when we see a lot of real-time, just-in-time demand.”
Management attributed the above-seasonal Q1 guide partly to customers completing their BOMs after securing memory supply, linking TI's orders to memory availability dynamics.
Доказательства
“When a customer doesn't necessarily have everything they need... when they finally have those parts they need, sometimes they'll come in very quickly and want to order parts.”
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 0. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.