Guidance
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TDG
FY2026 Q2
Повышен
Отчётный звонок Transdigm Group Incorporated
Вывод Buzzberg
Guidance raised on strong Q2 performance across all markets
TransDigm reported a strong Q2 FY2026, beating expectations and raising full-year guidance. Growth was driven by robust commercial aftermarket performance and a rebound from previous quarters. Management remains cautious about a potential lagged impact from the Middle East conflict on global flight activity, but has not yet seen a significant effect on ordering. Q2 FY2026 results exceeded expectations, with organic growth of ~11% and all three market channels (Commercial OEM, Commercial Aftermarket, Defense) contributing positively of which CAM was a standout.
Вывод Buzzberg Guidance raised on strong Q2 performance across all markets TransDigm reported a strong Q2 FY2026, beating expectations and raising full-year guidance. Growth was driven by robust commercial aftermarket performance and a rebound from previous quarters. Management remains cautious about a potential lagged impact from the Middle East conflict on global flight activity, but has not yet seen a significant effect on ordering. Q2 FY2026 results exceeded expectations, with organic growth of ~11% and all three market channels (Commercial OEM, Commercial Aftermarket, Defense) contributing positively of which CAM was a standout. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
TransDigm reported a strong Q2 FY2026, beating expectations and raising full-year guidance. Growth was driven by robust commercial aftermarket performance and a rebound from previous quarters. Management remains cautious about a potential lagged impact from the Middle East conflict on global flight activity, but has not yet seen a significant effect on ordering. Q2 FY2026 results exceeded expectations, with organic growth of ~11% and all three market channels (Commercial OEM, Commercial Aftermarket, Defense) contributing positively of which CAM was a standout.
- Full-year FY2026 guidance was raised: revenue midpoint to $10.36B (+17% y/y), EBITDA to $5.42B, and Adjusted EPS to $39.52.
- Free cash flow guidance raised to ~$2.5B, up $100M from prior guidance.
- Management remains cautious on the commercial aftermarket outlook due to the Middle East conflict, noting a potential lagged impact on global RPKs and takeoff/landing cycles, though no significant impact to date.
Выручка$2.544B+11% к/к
EPS$9.85+20% к/к
Валовая маржа59.39%Факт
Операционная маржа46.31%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Demand
Commercial aftermarket growth rebounded with bookings at all-time high
Macro
No significant impact yet from Middle East conflict on aftermarket
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
M&A
M&A firepower remains over $10 billion after recent deals
Margins
Expect base business margins to improve 1-1.5 points annually
Supply Chain
Supply chain has largely normalized with high on-time performance
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| Выручка | $2.544B | +11% к/к |
| EPS | $9.85 | +20% к/к |
| Валовая маржа | 59.39% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 46.31% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $0.064B | Факт |
| Капзатраты | $0.071B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2026 | $39.52 | $39.52 | Повышен |
| Свободный денежный поток | FY2026 | $2.5B | $2.5B | Повышен |
| Выручка | FY2026 | $10.3B–$10.42B | $10.36B | Повышен |
| ВыручкаCOMMERCIAL_AFTERMARKET | FY2026 | 7%–12% | 9.5% | Повышен |
| ВыручкаCOMMERCIAL_OEM | FY2026 | 10%–15% | 12.5% | Повышен |
| ВыручкаDEFENSE | FY2026 | 7%–10% | 8.5% | Повышен |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Cautiously Optimisti
Management expressed satisfaction with strong results and raised guidance, but repeatedly highlighted uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and its potential impact on the commercial aftermarket.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 2
Компаниис момента звонка
Поставщики
Поставщики
Mike Lisman
TDG sees Boeing and Airbus ramping production, with demand high but recovery bumpy; TDG is encouraged by consistent quarterly improvements in OEM bookings.
Доказательства
“Boeing and Airbus are continuing to ramp production rates. Airline demand for new aircraft remains high, with backlogs increasing. The OEM production rate recovery to date has been bumpy.”
Поставщики
Mike Lisman
TDG sees Airbus ramping production alongside Boeing, supporting TDG's commercial OEM growth.
Доказательства
“Boeing and Airbus are continuing to ramp production rates. Airline demand for new aircraft remains high, with backlogs increasing.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 3с момента звонка
TDG says roughly 75% of its commercial aftermarket shipments go direct to airlines/OEMs, with only ~25% through distribution, which reduces channel inventory distortion risk.
Доказательства
“roughly 75% of our camp shipments go direct to an airline or through an OEM to the airline. Twenty-five percent roughly is what goes through our distribution partners.”
Management noted that on a same-store basis, margins should improve by 100-150bps annually as the dilution from recent acquisitions fades.
Доказательства
“We expect sequential improvement on a same store sales basis, apples to apples business mix of call it one percentage point to maybe a percentage point and a half of margin improvement year over year.”
Despite the Middle East conflict, TDG has not seen a significant change in commercial aftermarket ordering, including from Middle Eastern airlines, though April activity has dipped.
Доказательства
“To date, we have not seen a significant change in commercial aftermarket ordering activity relative to levels prior to the start of the conflict. including from the Middle Eastern Airlines, most directly impact.”
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 2. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.