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SJM FY2026 Q1 IN LINE

Отчётный звонок The J.M. Smucker Company

Aug 27, 2025 · 05:00 ET Crystal BidingMark SmuckerTucker Marshall
Вывод Buzzberg

Coffee pricing outlook raised to mid-20s amid tariffs

Smucker's Q1 FY2026 call reiterated full-year EPS guidance at the $9 midpoint despite higher coffee tariffs, offset by better pricing elasticity and a $100 million boost to free cash flow from a new tax benefit. Coffee pricing will reach mid-20% for the year, but winter price increases are expected to cause greater volume elasticity. The Hostess SKU rationalization savings are back-loaded, with most benefiting FY27. Full-year EPS guidance maintained at $9 midpoint; coffee segment profit outlook intact despite incremental 25¢ tariff headwind.

Вывод Buzzberg Coffee pricing outlook raised to mid-20s amid tariffs Smucker's Q1 FY2026 call reiterated full-year EPS guidance at the $9 midpoint despite higher coffee tariffs, offset by better pricing elasticity and a $100 million boost to free cash flow from a new tax benefit. Coffee pricing will reach mid-20% for the year, but winter price increases are expected to cause greater volume elasticity. The Hostess SKU rationalization savings are back-loaded, with most benefiting FY27. Full-year EPS guidance maintained at $9 midpoint; coffee segment profit outlook intact despite incremental 25¢ tariff headwind. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ

Smucker's Q1 FY2026 call reiterated full-year EPS guidance at the $9 midpoint despite higher coffee tariffs, offset by better pricing elasticity and a $100 million boost to free cash flow from a new tax benefit. Coffee pricing will reach mid-20% for the year, but winter price increases are expected to cause greater volume elasticity. The Hostess SKU rationalization savings are back-loaded, with most benefiting FY27. Full-year EPS guidance maintained at $9 midpoint; coffee segment profit outlook intact despite incremental 25¢ tariff headwind.

  • Free cash flow guidance raised to $975 million (from $875M) due to a permanent tax benefit from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
  • Coffee pricing for FY26 now expected in mid-20% range, with volume down low-to-mid teens; winter pricing elasticity expected to be above historical 0.5x.
  • Hostess SKU rationalization will deliver $30M in savings, but only $10M realized in Q4 FY26; $20M flows to FY27.
Revenue $2.1133B reported
EPS $1.90 reported
Gross margin 22.46% reported
Op margin 2.16% reported

Что изменилось в этом квартале

01
Pricing

Coffee pricing outlook raised to mid-20s amid tariffs

Smucker's Q1 FY2026 call reiterated full-year EPS guidance at the $9 midpoint despite higher coffee tariffs, offset by better pricing elasticity and a $100 million boost to free cash flow from a new tax benefit. Coffee pricing will reach mid-20% for the year, but winter price…

02
Demand

Favorable coffee elasticity offsets tariff costs

Management acknowledged tariff headwinds and cost timing but reiterated full-year guidance and highlighted resilience in coffee and growth brands, balancing caution with confidence.

03
Guidance

Second quarter EPS decline will exceed first quarter decline

Guidance tone

04
Margins

Hostess SKU rationalization benefits begin in Q4

Reported gross margin was 22.46%, reinforcing the quarter's better-than-guided profitability.

Спрос

Спрос

Заказы и конверсия

Favorable coffee elasticity offsets tariff costs. Management acknowledged tariff headwinds and cost timing but reiterated full-year guidance and highlighted resilience in coffee and growth brands, balancing caution with confidence.

Тон · Measured

Management acknowledged tariff headwinds and cost timing but reiterated full-year guidance and highlighted resilience in coffee and growth brands, balancing caution with confidence.

Альфа цепочки поставок

A1

Coffee pricing actions are being layered rapidly (May, August, early winter) leading to mid-20% total price for FY26, with the winter pricing expected to have a higher elasticity (worse volume impact) than historical 0.5x due to multiple price increases in one year.

“any future pricing actions that we would take in early winter, that would largely be at a greater elasticity factor than historical just due to the timing and nature, and also the fact that we're taking so much pricing in one fiscal year”
Tucker Marshall
A2

Smucker increased its free cash flow outlook by $100 million to $975 million due to a permanent tax benefit from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, not a one-time item, which will support faster deleveraging toward 3x leverage by FY27.

“We plan to use the proceeds or the incremental cash to support our ongoing debt paydown efforts in order to achieve our three times leverage profile by the end of fiscal year 27.”
Tucker Marshall
A3

SKU rationalization in sweet baked snacks will deliver $30 million in savings, with only $10 million realized in Q4 and the majority ($20 million) benefiting FY27, signaling a multi-year profit recovery path for Hostess.

“We'll begin to see about $10 million of that benefit flow through our fourth quarter with the balance or 20 million impacting or benefiting fiscal year 27.”
Tucker Marshall

Прогноз компании

In LineGuidance tone
Прогноз компании
ПоказательПериодДиапазонСерединаСтатус
EPSFY2026$9.00$9.00MAINTAINED
Free cash flowFY2026$0.875B–$0.975B$0.925BRAISED

Надёжность прогнозов

1 / 1выполнено или превышено
Надёжность прогнозов
Дата прогнозаПоказательЦелевой периодПрогнозФактРезультат
FY2026 Q2Free cash flowFY2026$0.975B$1.2BMet / beat