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ON FY2025 Q4 IMPROVING

Отчётный звонок ON Semiconductor Corporation

Feb 09, 2026 · 17:00 ET Hassan El KhouryParag AgarwalThad Tan
Вывод Buzzberg

AI data center revenue grew to >$250M, expected to grow high teens in Q1

ON Semiconductor reported a Q4 2025 top-line in line with guidance and provided a Q1 2026 outlook that signals the beginning of a recovery in its core automotive and industrial markets. Management's tone was increasingly optimistic, citing stronger order trends, an end to inventory digestion, and a rapidly growing AI data center business, while highlighting disciplined execution on cost and margin initiatives. Q4 2025 revenue of $1.53B, non-GAAP EPS of $0.64, both at or above guidance midpoints, with non-GAAP gross margin at 38.2%.

Вывод Buzzberg AI data center revenue grew to >$250M, expected to grow high teens in Q1 ON Semiconductor reported a Q4 2025 top-line in line with guidance and provided a Q1 2026 outlook that signals the beginning of a recovery in its core automotive and industrial markets. Management's tone was increasingly optimistic, citing stronger order trends, an end to inventory digestion, and a rapidly growing AI data center business, while highlighting disciplined execution on cost and margin initiatives. Q4 2025 revenue of $1.53B, non-GAAP EPS of $0.64, both at or above guidance midpoints, with non-GAAP gross margin at 38.2%. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ

ON Semiconductor reported a Q4 2025 top-line in line with guidance and provided a Q1 2026 outlook that signals the beginning of a recovery in its core automotive and industrial markets. Management's tone was increasingly optimistic, citing stronger order trends, an end to inventory digestion, and a rapidly growing AI data center business, while highlighting disciplined execution on cost and margin initiatives. Q4 2025 revenue of $1.53B, non-GAAP EPS of $0.64, both at or above guidance midpoints, with non-GAAP gross margin at 38.2%.

  • Management guides Q1 2026 revenue to $1.44-1.54B, below seasonality due to an intentional exit of non-core products, but represents the first year-over-year growth in three years.
  • Automotive inventory digestion is largely complete, with flat sequential auto revenue expected in Q1, while industrial revenue saw its first y/y growth in 8 quarters.
  • AI data center revenue exceeded $250M in 2025, and is expected to grow high-teens sequentially in Q1 2026.
AI revenue $250 reported
Revenue $1.5301B -1% QoQ
EPS $0.64 +2% QoQ
Gross margin 34.92% reported

Что изменилось в этом квартале

01
AI

AI data center revenue grew to >$250M, expected to grow high teens in Q1

AI data center revenue exceeded $250 million in 2025, is expected to grow high teens in Q1 2026, and management sees it as a fast-scaling opportunity with expanding content per rack. They are targeting high-voltage rails and vCore (TLVR) designs, with a broadening portfolio.

02
Guidance

Q1 is first year-over-year revenue growth since downturn began

Guidance · revenue to $1.49B

03
Demand

Automotive inventory digestion is largely behind them

Management signals improved visibility and stabilization, with 'more expedites than 90 days ago' and Q1 marking the first year-over-year revenue growth since the downturn, but they remain guarded about a full recovery.

04
Margins

Gross margin can gain ~700bps as utilization rises to low-90s

Reported gross margin was 34.92%, reinforcing the quarter's better-than-guided profitability.

AI, капзатраты и спрос

AI

Платформа и монетизация

AI data center revenue exceeded $250 million in 2025, is expected to grow high teens in Q1 2026, and management sees it as a fast-scaling opportunity with expanding content per rack. They are targeting high-voltage rails and vCore (TLVR) designs, with a broadening portfolio.

Спрос

Заказы и конверсия

Automotive inventory digestion is largely behind them. Management signals improved visibility and stabilization, with 'more expedites than 90 days ago' and Q1 marking the first year-over-year revenue growth since the downturn, but they remain guarded about a full recovery.

Капзатраты

Инвестиции и мощности

Capex is expected to be $35-45 million in Q1 2026, down from $69 million in Q4 2025, reflecting that large capacity investments are behind them. Continued FabRite factory rationalization will lower depreciation by $45-50 million in 2026 and drive margin expansion.

Тон · Improved / Cautiousl

Management signals improved visibility and stabilization, with 'more expedites than 90 days ago' and Q1 marking the first year-over-year revenue growth since the downturn, but they remain guarded about a full recovery.

Альфа цепочки поставок

A1

ON's AI data center revenue is guiding to ~high teens sequential growth in Q1 2026, a strong signal for AI power chain demand.

“We do expect that our AI data center revenue in Q1 will grow high teens percentage-wise.”
Thad Tan
A2

ON is experiencing an increase in expedite requests and better book-to-bill, signaling a firming demand environment across the semiconductor supply chain.

“Expedites, we're seeing more expedites than we did 90 days ago. So all of the metrics that you mentioned are exactly what is giving us that confidence in the outlook.”
Hassan El Khoury
A3

Despite signs of stabilization, ON is not seeing automotive restocking, which could lead to a sharp demand spike and constraints later in 2026.

“we're not seeing the replenishment yet. But this is strong signals for stabilization in the market.”
Hassan El Khoury
A4

ON's silicon carbide JFET wins for AI data center power designs are ramping production at key customers like Delta, indicating a significant supply chain shift toward high-voltage power distribution.

“At the UPS stage, we want a high-end design with a leading US power supplier that cuts their system footprint by about 50% using our SICK power module”
Hassan El Khoury

Прогноз компании

ImprovingGuidance · revenue to $1.49B · was IN LINE last Q
Прогноз компании
ПоказательПериодДиапазонСерединаСтатус
CapexFY2026 Q1$35–$45$40GUIDED
EPSFY2026 Q1$0.56–$0.66$0.61GUIDED
Gross marginFY2026 Q137.5%–39.5%38.5%GUIDED
RevenueFY2026 Q1$1.44B–$1.54B$1.49BGUIDED

Надёжность прогнозов

5 / 6выполнено или превышено
Надёжность прогнозов
Дата прогнозаПоказательЦелевой периодПрогнозФактРезультат
FY2026 Q1EPSFY2026 Q2$0.65–$0.77$0.74Met / beat
FY2026 Q1Gross marginFY2026 Q238%–40%38.43%Met / beat
FY2026 Q1RevenueFY2026 Q2$1.535B–$1.635B$1.6035BMet / beat
FY2025 Q3EPSFY2025 Q4$0.57–$0.67$0.64Met / beat
FY2025 Q3Gross marginFY2025 Q437%–39%34.92%Missed
FY2025 Q3RevenueFY2025 Q4$1.48B–$1.58B$1.5301BMet / beat

Сигналы по компаниям

+28.0%
с момента звонка
$70.16$89.80
Клиенты

Dexcom has selected ON's low-power analog front end for its CGMs, indicating a direct supply relationship and design win in a high-value medical application.

“with customers like Dexcom, who designed our low-power analog front end and their continuous glucose monitors, or CGM.”
Hassan El Khoury
+7.2%
с момента звонка
$80.88$86.70
Клиенты

GM is partnering with ON on vertical GaN based electric drive systems, signaling a long-term design win that could lead to significant content growth in GM's EVs.

“For VGAN, we are already collaborating with GM on the development of electric drive systems.”
Hassan El Khoury
SNGWF
Непубличная компания
Клиенты

Sungrow is adopting ON's next-gen hybrid power modules for its global platform, a meaningful AI data center and energy infrastructure design win.

“with a first win at SunGrow in their global platform.”
Hassan El Khoury
+59.8%
с момента звонка
$1,180.00$1,885.00
Клиенты

Delta has secured designs using ON's power devices in its BBU and PSU systems, highlighting ON's role in Delta's AI data center power offerings.

с момента звонка
+25.8%
с момента звонка
$43.43$54.65
Партнёры

ON is partnering with Innoscience and GlobalFoundries for GaN switching devices, broadening its regional supply options and product breadth.

-26.5%
с момента звонка
$16.35$12.02
+70.4%
с момента звонка
$32.80$55.90
Цепочка поставокАльфа цепочки поставок

ON's AI data center revenue is guiding to ~high teens sequential growth in Q1 2026, a strong signal for AI power chain demand. — This indicates that the AI power build-out is accelerating, contradicting any signs of a slowdown in AI infrastructure investment.

+28.0%
с момента звонка
$218.77$280.00
+21.4%
с момента звонка
$321.00$389.87
Цепочка поставокАльфа цепочки поставок

ON is experiencing an increase in expedite requests and better book-to-bill, signaling a firming demand environment across the semiconductor supply chain. — An increase in expedites is a leading indicator of a turn in the inventory cycle, possibly ahead of an industry-wide restock.

+3.4%
с момента звонка
$227.00$234.76
Цепочка поставокАльфа цепочки поставок

Despite signs of stabilization, ON is not seeing automotive restocking, which could lead to a sharp demand spike and constraints later in 2026. — Lean inventory in the automotive channel could lead to a sudden surge in orders, benefiting suppliers with flexible capacity, but also risks panic buying.

+70.4%
с момента звонка
$32.80$55.90
Цепочка поставокАльфа цепочки поставок

ON's silicon carbide JFET wins for AI data center power designs are ramping production at key customers like Delta, indicating a significant supply chain shift toward high-voltage power distribution.