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FY2026 Q2
В пределах ожиданий
Отчётный звонок Microchip Technology Incorporated
Вывод Buzzberg
Gen 6 PCIe switch is industry's first 3-nanometer device, sampling now
Microchip guided for a slightly below-seasonal December quarter due to customers pushing orders into March, despite strong bookings and a stabilizing end market. The company is optimistic about a strong recovery in the March, June, and September quarters of 2026, driven by inventory restocking and new product ramps like its 3nm PCIe Gen6 switch. December quarter revenue guided to $1.129B ± $20M, down 1% sequentially, better than seasonal but below management's previous expectations.
Вывод Buzzberg Gen 6 PCIe switch is industry's first 3-nanometer device, sampling now Microchip guided for a slightly below-seasonal December quarter due to customers pushing orders into March, despite strong bookings and a stabilizing end market. The company is optimistic about a strong recovery in the March, June, and September quarters of 2026, driven by inventory restocking and new product ramps like its 3nm PCIe Gen6 switch. December quarter revenue guided to $1.129B ± $20M, down 1% sequentially, better than seasonal but below management's previous expectations. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
Microchip guided for a slightly below-seasonal December quarter due to customers pushing orders into March, despite strong bookings and a stabilizing end market. The company is optimistic about a strong recovery in the March, June, and September quarters of 2026, driven by inventory restocking and new product ramps like its 3nm PCIe Gen6 switch. December quarter revenue guided to $1.129B ± $20M, down 1% sequentially, better than seasonal but below management's previous expectations.
- Bookings are strong (1.06 book-to-bill), but customers are scheduling deliveries for March, causing a one-quarter revenue pause.
- Inventory charges and underutilization continue to weigh on gross margins (guidance: 57.2%-59.2%), but management expects these to normalize more quickly than underutilization.
- The company announced the first 3nm PCIe Gen6 switch (based on TSMC's node) sampling to customers, targeting production in mid-2026, signaling a strategic push into AI data center markets.
Выручка$1.1404BФакт
EPS$0.35Факт
Валовая маржа55.94%Факт
Операционная маржа8.35%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Guidance
Customers scheduling bookings for March, hurting December quarter
Guidance
December quarter expected to be down 1% sequentially, better than seasonal
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Guidance
Three strong quarters expected after December quarter
Margins
Gross margin headwinds from inventory write-offs and underutilization
Margins
Product gross margin remains healthy at 67.4%
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| Выручка | $1.1404B | Факт |
| EPS | $0.35 | Факт |
| Валовая маржа | 55.94% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 8.35% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $0.0516B | Факт |
| Капзатраты | $0.0365B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Капзатраты | FY2026 | $0.05B–$0.1B | $0.075B | Подтверждён |
| EPS | FY2026 Q3 | $0.34–$0.40 | $0.37 | Подтверждён |
| Валовая маржа | FY2026 Q3 | 57.2%–59.2% | 58.2% | Подтверждён |
| Операционная маржа | FY2026 Q3 | 24.5%–26.9% | 25.7% | Подтверждён |
| Выручка | FY2026 Q3 | $1.109B–$1.149B | $1.129B | Подтверждён |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Cautiously Optimisti
Management expressed confidence in upcoming quarters and product positioning, but acknowledged a softer near-term environment and customer inventory behavior.
Оценка AI от менеджмента
Management highlighted the launch of the industry's first 3-nanometer-based PCIe Gen 6 switch for AI infrastructure, emphasizing strong growth in Gen 4/Gen 5 data center products and positioning to capture share in the accelerating AI data center build-out.
Инвестиции и мощности
Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are expected to be at or below $100 million, with the September quarter including $20 million for a building purchase in India supporting R&D. The company is also selling its Fab 2 facility to restructure wafer fabrication operations.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 4
Компаниис момента звонка
Поставщики
Поставщики
Brian MacKerson
Microchip's leading-edge Gen 6 switch is built on TSMC's 3nm node, and capacity is secured. This solidifies TSMC's role in AI data center switching infrastructure and confirms high-end node demand.
Доказательства
“Yeah, so we see a really healthy long-term strategic relationship with our foundry supplier in three nanometer, which is TSMC. And we believe we have the line of sight to the capacity that's needed to support our customer needs.”
Конкуренты
Конкуренты
Brian MacKerson
Microchip positions its PCIe switches as complementary to any AI compute architecture, potentially benefiting from all vendors' success but also competing against in-house or bundled NVIDIA switching.
Доказательства
“It is critical to understand that regardless of whether our customers deploy NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, or custom ASICs, all require high-performance PCIe switching infrastructure.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 5с момента звонка
Substrate and advanced-node foundry capacity constraints are causing lead times to extend and some shipments to be pushed out, potentially impacting revenue in the near term.
Доказательства
“We're running into challenges on certain kind of substrates and subcontracting capacity and also some foundry constraints on very advanced nodes.”
The gap between distributor sell-in and sell-through of $52.9 million is expected to correct over the next two quarters, providing a tailwind to revenue as distributors replenish inventory.
Доказательства
“The distributors' sell-in versus sell-through gap did not shrink last quarter... It was 49.3 million in the June quarter, and it was 52.9 million in the September quarter.”
Management sees a strategic shift by hiring a Data Center Solutions leader and developing state-of-the-art 3nm PCIe Gen6 switches, indicating a pivot toward high-growth AI infrastructure markets.
Доказательства
“Yes, you should absolutely take that as a strategic shift. We hired Brian McKerson into Microchip... focused on getting our data center products to state-of-the-art in market positioning.”
Inventory days are still high at 199 days, but management expects charges to normalize more quickly than underutilization, leading to a longer tail of gross margin headwinds.
Доказательства
“We're confident in saying that the inventory write-offs normalize quicker than then the underutilization goes away.”
Customers are deliberately scheduling strong bookings for March delivery rather than December to manage their year-end balance sheet, creating a push-pull dynamic in the current quarter.
Доказательства
“Customers and distributors are scheduling these for March delivery and are continuing to lower their inventories into this calendar year end.”
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 4. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.