Market share
← Отчётные звонки
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Капзатраты
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LOW
FY2025 Q4
В пределах ожиданий
Отчётный звонок Lowe's Companies, Inc.
Вывод Buzzberg
Lowe's will take share regardless of macro conditions
Lowe's reported a strong Q4 2025 with positive comps, driven by pro, online, and services, but issued a cautiously neutral 2026 outlook due to continued housing market pressure. While management highlighted market share gains and operational execution, they guided for a wide range of outcomes for the year, reflecting uncertainty about rate cuts, tariff policy, and big-ticket consumer spending. Q4 sales of $20.6B grew 1.3% y/y, with positive comps in pro, online (+10.5%), and home services (high-single-digit).
Вывод Buzzberg Lowe's will take share regardless of macro conditions Lowe's reported a strong Q4 2025 with positive comps, driven by pro, online, and services, but issued a cautiously neutral 2026 outlook due to continued housing market pressure. While management highlighted market share gains and operational execution, they guided for a wide range of outcomes for the year, reflecting uncertainty about rate cuts, tariff policy, and big-ticket consumer spending. Q4 sales of $20.6B grew 1.3% y/y, with positive comps in pro, online (+10.5%), and home services (high-single-digit). Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
Lowe's reported a strong Q4 2025 with positive comps, driven by pro, online, and services, but issued a cautiously neutral 2026 outlook due to continued housing market pressure. While management highlighted market share gains and operational execution, they guided for a wide range of outcomes for the year, reflecting uncertainty about rate cuts, tariff policy, and big-ticket consumer spending. Q4 sales of $20.6B grew 1.3% y/y, with positive comps in pro, online (+10.5%), and home services (high-single-digit).
- Full-year 2025 sales were $86.3B with adjusted EPS of $12.28, and the company returned $2.6B in dividends.
- 2026 guidance is cautious: sales of $92-94B (comps flat to +2%), adjusted EPS of $12.25-12.75, and adjusted operating margin of 11.6-11.8%.
- The company completed the acquisitions of FBM and ADG, which are expected to add ~$8B in sales in 2026 but dilute operating margins by ~30 bps.
Выручка$20.584B-1% к/к
EPS$1.98-35% к/к
Валовая маржа39.16%Факт
Операционная маржа8.3%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Cost/Productivity
Cutting 600 corporate roles to retain financial agility and fund customer-facing areas
AI
AI assistant Milo is doubling online conversion rates
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Pro
Pro extended aisle is scaling and exceeding expectations
Acquisitions
FBM commercial wins new data center contracts
Guidance
Q1 comps will run below full-year midpoint due to storms
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| Выручка | $20.584B | -1% к/к |
| EPS | $1.98 | -35% к/к |
| Валовая маржа | 39.16% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 8.3% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $0.964B | Факт |
| Капзатраты | $0.603B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Капзатраты | FY2026 | $2.5B | $2.5B | Обозначен |
| EPS | FY2026 | $12.25–$12.75 | $12.50 | Обозначен |
| Операционная маржа | FY2026 | 11.6%–11.8% | 11.7% | Обозначен |
| Выручка | FY2026 | $92B–$94B | $93B | Обозначен |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Cautiously Confident
They describe the 2026 outlook as cautious due to housing macro volatility, but repeatedly express confidence in outperforming the market and taking share.
Оценка AI от менеджмента
Management frames AI as a core enabler across selling, shopping, and working, citing virtual assistant Milo doubling online conversion, AI-enabled pro and merchant tools improving productivity, and early positioning for agentic commerce with digital platforms.
Инвестиции и мощности
Management is raising capital expenditure in 2026 to invest in total home strategic initiatives, with spending heavily concentrated in the retail business.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 3
Компаниис момента звонка
Поставщики
Поставщики
Marvin Ellison
Lowe's expanding its assortment of DeWalt (Stanley Black & Decker) products, which could drive volume and share gains for the supplier in the pro channel.
Доказательства
“We are furthering enhancing our pro brand offering by extending our assortment of the number one power tool brand, DeWalt, the tool of choice for pros for over 100 years. We are excited that we now carry the largest selection of DeWalt”
Поставщики
Bill Boltz
New Sherwin-Williams products are gaining traction with pro customers at Lowe's, driving sales growth for both the retailer and the paint supplier.
Доказательства
“we're off to a great start with the new Sherwin-Williams ProBlock Quick-Dry Primers, which we introduced in Q3. Pros are responding to the superior quality and performance versus the competition, helping to drive double-digit pro comps and”
Цепочка поставок
Цепочка поставок
Brandon Sink
Management disclosed that the Fed's rate cuts have not yet spurred meaningful demand, and they are watching mortgage rates, noting the dip below 6% this week is a potential psychological unlock. — This is an early signal that recent rate cuts are not yet translating into housing activity, but a drop below 6% could be the critical threshold for a demand recovery.
Доказательства
“We do look at sub-6% rates as potentially stimulating demand. We saw that this week for the first time dip just below 6%. Translating all that into the guide, there is a delay, as Marvin referenced.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 4с момента звонка
Lowe's core business held operating margin flat in 2025 excluding acquisitions, and expects 30 bps of margin dilution from FBM/ADG in 2026, implying improved core business profitability.
Доказательства
“This includes 30 basis points of dilution related to the wrap of FBM and ADG in 2026. And as a reminder, the acquisitions drive approximately 50 basis points of dilution on an annualized basis.”
Management disclosed that the Fed's rate cuts have not yet spurred meaningful demand, and they are watching mortgage rates, noting the dip below 6% this week is a potential psychological unlock.
The company outlined a new 'full-shelf replenishment' AI-enabled initiative that launched across all stores to use real-time data to identify and restock critical out-of-stocks.
Доказательства
“our new full-shelf replenishment initiative, which launched across all stores last month. Using real-time data to identify out-of-stocks, this AI-enabled technology sends stores a prioritized list of the most critical items to restock”
The pro extended aisle is 'exceeding all expectations,' adding new suppliers and products to the platform, and supporting planned pro spend.
Доказательства
“We continue a multi-year build-out for 2026. We're very pleased. It's actually exceeding all expectations. And we're adding new suppliers, new markets every single week...”
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 3. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.