Guidance
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LII
FY2026 Q2
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Отчётный звонок Lennox International, Inc.
Вывод Buzzberg
Residential recovery pushed to 2027; EPS guidance cut
Lennox reported Q2 2026 results highlighting a mixed performance: strong growth in Building Climate Solutions offset by continued weakness in Home Comfort, leading to a full-year EPS guidance cut. Management is confident in the long-term resi recovery despite delaying the expected benefit to 2027. Total revenue increased 3% to $1.5B, but adjusted EPS was flat at $7.72.
Вывод Buzzberg Residential recovery pushed to 2027; EPS guidance cut Lennox reported Q2 2026 results highlighting a mixed performance: strong growth in Building Climate Solutions offset by continued weakness in Home Comfort, leading to a full-year EPS guidance cut. Management is confident in the long-term resi recovery despite delaying the expected benefit to 2027. Total revenue increased 3% to $1.5B, but adjusted EPS was flat at $7.72. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
Lennox reported Q2 2026 results highlighting a mixed performance: strong growth in Building Climate Solutions offset by continued weakness in Home Comfort, leading to a full-year EPS guidance cut. Management is confident in the long-term resi recovery despite delaying the expected benefit to 2027. Total revenue increased 3% to $1.5B, but adjusted EPS was flat at $7.72.
- HCS revenue declined 7% due to a 12% unit volume decline; weak residential new construction and a strategic walk-away from low-margin business were the primary drivers.
- BCS revenue grew 24%, with 12% organic growth, driven by emergency replacement and national accounts; M&A from Duradyne contributed 9%.
- FY2026 EPS guidance lowered to $23-24 from previous higher range; HCS revenue guide cut to ~1% growth while BCS raised to ~20%.
BCS Рост выручки24%Факт
HCS Рост выручки-7%Факт
Выручка$1.5453B+36% к/к
EPS$7.72Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Demand
Walked away from low-margin new construction business
Demand
BCS strong with 24% revenue growth, share gains
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
M&A
Comfort Air and Century acquisition accretive in 2027
Supply
Channel inventory normalized; no further destocking
Cash Flow
Free cash flow outlook unchanged at $750-$850 million
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| BCS Рост выручки | 24% | Факт |
| HCS Рост выручки | -7% | Факт |
| Выручка | $1.5453B | +36% к/к |
| EPS | $7.72 | Факт |
| Валовая маржа | 34.91% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 22.97% | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Капзатраты | FY2026 | $225M | $225M | Понижен |
| EPS | FY2026 | $23.00–$24.00 | $23.50 | Понижен |
| Свободный денежный поток | FY2026 | $750M–$850M | $800M | Подтверждён |
| ВыручкаHCS | FY2026 | 1% | 1% | Понижен |
| ВыручкаBCS | FY2026 | 20% | 20% | Повышен |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Cautious
Management acknowledged slower residential recovery and reduced full-year guidance, but expressed confidence in long-term strategy and cash generation.
Инвестиции и мощности
Management lowered full-year capital expenditure outlook to approximately $225 million from $250 million due to project timing, while emphasizing key investment priorities remain unchanged.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 6
Компаниис момента звонка
Партнёры
Партнёры
Alok Maskara
Samsung partnership is part of Lennox's strategy to broaden offerings and strengthen its competitive positioning in HVAC.
Доказательства
“we are leaning into initiatives that strengthen our long-term competitive position, including distribution network optimization and partnerships like Samsung and Ariston”
Цепочка поставок
Цепочка поставок
Alok Maskara
Lennox is losing significant share in new construction by intentionally walking away from low-margin business, which is a bigger impact than originally anticipated and driving most of the one-step volume decline. — This market share forfeiture in new construction is a strategic decision that pressures near-term volumes for LII, but could create pricing power shifts for competitors in the residential new construction channel.
Доказательства
“It is bigger than what we had originally looked at. That market remains extremely competitive and the margins were there but just not acceptable.”
Цепочка поставок
Alok Maskara
The emergency replacement market in commercial HVAC is a strong growth area where Lennox is gaining share, indicating competitors are losing out in this high-demand, immediate-replacement segment. — Share gains in the lucrative emergency replacement channel signal a competitive advantage for LII in commercial HVAC and indicate potential share losses for rivals.
Доказательства
“Yes, we have definitely gained share. Within emergency replacement, our core contractor business in commercial, our referential dealers, and working through distribution, all C have gained and we are pleased with the progress there.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 3с момента звонка
Lennox is losing significant share in new construction by intentionally walking away from low-margin business, which is a bigger impact than originally anticipated and driving most of the one-step volume decline.
The resi market is seeing a bifurcation where 'sell-in' (to channel) is strong but 'sell-through' (to end consumer) remains weak, suggesting potential further inventory correction in the channel despite recent destocking.
Доказательства
“The June AHRI data and everything else that we looked at continues to show us a continual difference between sell-in and sell-through.”
The emergency replacement market in commercial HVAC is a strong growth area where Lennox is gaining share, indicating competitors are losing out in this high-demand, immediate-replacement segment.
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 6. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.