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KDP FY2025 Q4 IN LINE

Отчётный звонок Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

Feb 24, 2026 · 08:00 ET Anthony DiSilvestroChafinTim Cofer
Вывод Buzzberg

JDE Peets acquisition to close early April; separation targeted by end of 2026.

Q4 2025 was a solid quarter for KDP, with strong results in U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International, but U.S. Coffee profitability declined due to elevated cost inflation. The call focused heavily on the transformative acquisition of JDE Peet's, expected to close in early April 2026, and the planned separation into two pure-play companies by end of 2026. Management provided combined 2026 guidance, including a challenging Q1, with EPS growth expected to accelerate through the year. KDP reported Q4 2025 revenue growth of 9.9% (8.6% constant currency for 2025) and EPS growth of 2% to $0.60 (7.3% for 2025).

Вывод Buzzberg JDE Peets acquisition to close early April; separation targeted by end of 2026. Q4 2025 was a solid quarter for KDP, with strong results in U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International, but U.S. Coffee profitability declined due to elevated cost inflation. The call focused heavily on the transformative acquisition of JDE Peet's, expected to close in early April 2026, and the planned separation into two pure-play companies by end of 2026. Management provided combined 2026 guidance, including a challenging Q1, with EPS growth expected to accelerate through the year. KDP reported Q4 2025 revenue growth of 9.9% (8.6% constant currency for 2025) and EPS growth of 2% to $0.60 (7.3% for 2025). Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ

Q4 2025 was a solid quarter for KDP, with strong results in U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International, but U.S. Coffee profitability declined due to elevated cost inflation. The call focused heavily on the transformative acquisition of JDE Peet's, expected to close in early April 2026, and the planned separation into two pure-play companies by end of 2026. Management provided combined 2026 guidance, including a challenging Q1, with EPS growth expected to accelerate through the year. KDP reported Q4 2025 revenue growth of 9.9% (8.6% constant currency for 2025) and EPS growth of 2% to $0.60 (7.3% for 2025).

  • U.S. coffee segment operating income declined 8.8% in Q4 due to cost inflation outpacing pricing, a trend expected to persist in H1 2026 before easing.
  • Company reaffirmed the JDE Peet's acquisition for ~$40B, expected to close in early April, and detailed a fully financed capital structure.
  • 2026 guidance includes standalone KDP revenue and EPS growth of 4-6%, combined company revenue of $25.9-26.4B, and low double-digit combined EPS growth.
INTERNATIONAL rev growth 21% reported
Revenue $4.499B reported
US_COFFEE rev growth 3.9% reported
US_REFRESHMENT_BEVERAGES rev growth 11.5% reported

Что изменилось в этом квартале

01
M&A

JDE Peets acquisition to close early April; separation targeted by end of 2026.

Q4 2025 was a solid quarter for KDP, with strong results in U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International, but U.S. Coffee profitability declined due to elevated cost inflation. The call focused heavily on the transformative acquisition of JDE Peet's, expected to close in early…

02
Margins

Coffee cost headwinds to peak in Q1 2026 but ease in second half.

Reported gross margin was 53.77%, reinforcing the quarter's better-than-guided profitability.

03
Guidance

Q1 2026 EPS expected down significantly due to one-time items and cost headwinds.

Guidance · revenue to $26.15B

04
Product Innovation

Keurig Alta launch targeted for late 2026; ongoing investment ahead of scale.

Company reaffirmed the JDE Peet's acquisition for ~$40B, expected to close in early April, and detailed a fully financed capital structure.

Спрос и капзатраты

Спрос

Заказы и конверсия

SNAP changes expected manageable, with mixed early state signals.. Management expressed confidence in executing the JDE Peets acquisition and separation, highlighted strong innovation and market share gains, and reiterated long-term growth plans despite near-term cost pressures.

Капзатраты

Инвестиции и мощности

Management did not explicitly discuss capex, but mentioned investing ahead of scale for the Keurig Alta launch and increasing marketing and other investment spending in 2026 to support growth initiatives.

Тон · Confident

Management expressed confidence in executing the JDE Peets acquisition and separation, highlighted strong innovation and market share gains, and reiterated long-term growth plans despite near-term cost pressures.

Альфа цепочки поставок

A1

The EPS growth trajectory for standalone KDP implies a very sharp acceleration in the back half of 2026, driven primarily by the easing of coffee cost headwinds and retailer inventory adjustments.

“We plan to have good visibility that stand-alone KDP EPS growth will be positive in Q2 and accelerate further in the second half.”
Anthony DiSilvestro
A2

KDP is absorbing significant inflation and passing it through, indicated by 8-pt net price realization in U.S. coffee, yet volume/mix is down; this suggests unusual pricing power at the expense of volumes, which could signal softer demand if prices get too high.

“In U.S. coffee, net sales grew 3.9%. Net price realization added 8 percentage points, with inflation-driven increases across both pods and brewers. Biomix, a partial offset, declining 4.1 percentage points.”
Anthony DiSilvestro
A3

Mexico is seeing buying ahead of a significant beverage tax increase implemented in 2026, creating a pull-forward effect that will result in a softer Q1 for the international segment.

“In Mexico, we saw some buying ahead of a significant beverage tax increase that took effect at the beginning of 2026. Though the reversal of these benefits will result in a softer start to the segment in Q1.”
Anthony DiSilvestro

Прогноз компании

In LineGuidance · revenue to $26.15B
Прогноз компании
ПоказательПериодДиапазонСерединаСтатус
EPSKDP_STANDALONEFY20264%–6%5%GUIDED
EPSFY2026 Q1$0.36–$0.37$0.36GUIDED
Free cash flowKDP_STANDALONEFY2026$2B$2BGUIDED
RevenueFY2026$25.9B–$26.4B$26.15BGUIDED
RevenueKDP_STANDALONEFY20264%–6%5%GUIDED

Надёжность прогнозов

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Anthony DiSilvestro

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