IBM FY2026 Q2 Понижен

Отчётный звонок International Business Machines Corporation

Jul 22, 2026 · 13:00 ET Arvind KrishnaJim KavanaughOlympia McNerney earningscall_biz

Вывод Buzzberg

Z17 best refresh cycle at 130% program to program

IBM reported weaker-than-expected Q2 results with only 1% total revenue growth, missing prior expectations due to large enterprise license deal slippage as clients shifted CapEx toward memory and infrastructure. Management maintained full-year revenue guidance of 4-5% and free cash flow growth of ~$1B, expressing confidence that the shortfall is timing-related. Software growth was cut to 6-8%, but distributed infrastructure (Power/Storage) showed record momentum with $500M backlog. Q2 revenue grew 1% (vs. prior ~5% expectation), driven by a late-quarter shift in client spending toward servers/storage/memory due to supply concerns.

Вывод Buzzberg Z17 best refresh cycle at 130% program to program IBM reported weaker-than-expected Q2 results with only 1% total revenue growth, missing prior expectations due to large enterprise license deal slippage as clients shifted CapEx toward memory and infrastructure. Management maintained full-year revenue guidance of 4-5% and free cash flow growth of ~$1B, expressing confidence that the shortfall is timing-related. Software growth was cut to 6-8%, but distributed infrastructure (Power/Storage) showed record momentum with $500M backlog. Q2 revenue grew 1% (vs. prior ~5% expectation), driven by a late-quarter shift in client spending toward servers/storage/memory due to supply concerns. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ

Software growth of 5% (organic flat) missed; ~80% of software revenue (recurring) grew nicely, but large transaction-heavy ELAs slipped.
Management stated ~1/3 of slipped ELAs have already closed in early Q3, suggesting deferral rather than destruction.
Distributed infrastructure (Power & Storage) posted record revenue growth of 37% with $500M backlog, strongest on record.

CONSULTING Рост выручки1%Факт

INFRASTRUCTURE Рост выручки-7%Факт

SOFTWARE Рост выручки5%Факт

Выручка$17.162B+8% к/к

6 подтверждённых тезисов

Что важно сейчас

Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.

Demand

Z17 best refresh cycle at 130% program to program

Demand

One third of slipped deals already closed in July

Other

Lightwell early adopters include major banks

Показать ещё 3 тезиса

Nearly 50% of Z17 customers investing in AI capabilities

Guidance

Revenue growth guidance revised to 4-5% for 2026

Demand

Distributed infrastructure revenue grew 37%, best on record

Отчётный период

Фактические результаты

Показатель	Факт	Изменение
CONSULTING Рост выручки	1%	Факт
INFRASTRUCTURE Рост выручки	-7%	Факт
SOFTWARE Рост выручки	5%	Факт
Выручка	$17.162B	+8% к/к
EPS	$2.93	+53% к/к
Валовая маржа	57.73%	Факт

Прогнозные данные

Прогноз компании

Показатель	Период	Диапазон	Середина	Статус
Выручка	FY2026	4%–5%	4.5%	Понижен
ВыручкаSOFTWARE	FY2026	6%–8%	7%	Понижен

AI, капзатраты и спрос

Оценка менеджмента

Тон

confident

Management acknowledged the second quarter shortfall but expressed unchanged conviction in the business, citing strong demand signals in distributed infrastructure and mainframe, and maintained free cash flow guidance.

Оценка AI от менеджмента

Management stated that clients are in the early stages of AI adoption and that value will shift towards orchestration and data layers. They highlighted growing demand for AI in consulting, with generative AI representing about 50% of consulting signings, and that AI is driving capacity growth on the mainframe platform.

Капзатраты

Инвестиции и мощности

Management noted they are investing more than $10 billion in quantum over five years, including a billion-dollar cash contribution to a quantum foundry. They also proactively strengthened supply chain with inventory to support anticipated demand, and expect higher capex this year, though the majority is behind them.

все упомянутые компании ниже: 12

Компаниис момента звонка

Клиенты

BAC +2.2% BK C +3.5% GS -4.0% JPM +2.6% MA +7.2% MS -1.1% RY -1.8% STT 0.0% V +4.6% WFC +2.3%

Клиенты

Major financial institutions are early adopters of IBM's Lightwell open-source security service, indicating strong enterprise validation and potential recurring revenue.

Доказательства

“Early adopters of Lightwell include organizations like Bank of America, BNY, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, MasterCard, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Canada, State Street, Visa, Wells Fargo, and more.”

Arvind Krishna

Цепочка поставок

MU -9.0%

Цепочка поставок

Clients redirected CapEx spending toward servers, storage, and memory in late June to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, causing IBM's large enterprise license agreements to slip. — Indicates that memory and storage suppliers (e.g., Micron) are experiencing demand surges and pricing power, while IBM's traditional software/hardware deals are being delayed as cash-constrained enterprises front-buy components.

Доказательства

“We saw a shift in client spending priorities. Many clients redirected spending towards servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.”

Jim Kavanaugh

Внешние сигналы

Альфа цепочки поставок · 1с момента звонка

Clients redirected CapEx spending toward servers, storage, and memory in late June to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, causing IBM's large enterprise license agreements to slip.

Jim Kavanaugh

MU-9.0%

Методология и полнота

Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 12. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.