Guidance
← Отчётные звонки
01
02
03
04 05 06
Тон
AI
Капзатраты
A1 A2
IBM
FY2026 Q1
Улучшается
Отчётный звонок International Business Machines Corporation
Вывод Buzzberg
Software growth accelerated to 10%+ for 2026, driven by data and Red Hat.
IBM reported a strong Q1 with 6% revenue growth, margin expansion, and free cash flow of $2.2B. Management maintained full-year guidance but raised software growth to 10%+. AI adoption and mainframe demand were key themes, with partnerships highlighted (NVIDIA, Arm) and customer wins (ServiceNow, Visa, Nestle, banks). Q1 revenue grew 6% cc, with software up 8%, infrastructure up 12% (Z +48%), consulting up 1%.
Вывод Buzzberg Software growth accelerated to 10%+ for 2026, driven by data and Red Hat. IBM reported a strong Q1 with 6% revenue growth, margin expansion, and free cash flow of $2.2B. Management maintained full-year guidance but raised software growth to 10%+. AI adoption and mainframe demand were key themes, with partnerships highlighted (NVIDIA, Arm) and customer wins (ServiceNow, Visa, Nestle, banks). Q1 revenue grew 6% cc, with software up 8%, infrastructure up 12% (Z +48%), consulting up 1%. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
IBM reported a strong Q1 with 6% revenue growth, margin expansion, and free cash flow of $2.2B. Management maintained full-year guidance but raised software growth to 10%+. AI adoption and mainframe demand were key themes, with partnerships highlighted (NVIDIA, Arm) and customer wins (ServiceNow, Visa, Nestle, banks). Q1 revenue grew 6% cc, with software up 8%, infrastructure up 12% (Z +48%), consulting up 1%.
- Free cash flow reached $2.2B, highest first quarter in a decade; adjusted EBITDA up 17%.
- Software guidance raised to 10%+ growth for the year; total revenue and FCF guidance maintained at 5%+ and ~$1B increase respectively.
- Mainframe Z17 cycle is strongest on record, with 100%+ new MIPS growth for four consecutive quarters.
Выручка$15.917B-19% к/к
EPS$1.91-58% к/к
Валовая маржа56.23%Факт
Операционная маржа13.94%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
AI
AI is a growth driver with consulting backlog 30% Gen AI.
Demand
IBM Z sets record quarter, up 48%, with AI-driven demand.
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
M&A
M&A appetite could increase as valuations attract, later in 2026.
AI
Mainframe AI inference expands monetization via new AI MIPS.
Supply
Supply chain headwinds de minimis for IBM, mitigated by supplier ties.
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| Выручка | $15.917B | -19% к/к |
| EPS | $1.91 | -58% к/к |
| Валовая маржа | 56.23% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 13.94% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $4.778B | +53% к/к |
| Капзатраты | $0.391B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Свободный денежный поток | FY2026 | $1B | $1B | Подтверждён |
| Операционная маржа | FY2026 | 1% | 1% | Подтверждён |
| Операционная маржа | FY2026 Q2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Обозначен |
| Выручка | FY2026 | 5% | 5% | Подтверждён |
| ВыручкаSOFTWARE | FY2026 | 10% | 10% | Повышен |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Confident
Management highlights a strong start (6% revenue growth, record Z, software acceleration) and reaffirms guidance, expressing confidence in 5%+ growth, while prudently maintaining guidance given macro uncertainty.
Оценка AI от менеджмента
Management frames AI as a structural tailwind: enterprises are moving from experimentation to scaled deployment across hybrid environments, and IBM's platform (Red Hat, data/Confluent, automation, WatsonX, and IBM Z with Spire) is positioned to capture value as AI drives demand for open, governed, secure, and integrated infrastructure. AI is embedded across software, consulting (30% of backlog, 20
Инвестиции и мощности
Higher capex is a planned headwind to free cash flow in 2026, as noted earlier in the year. The increase supports strategic investments in innovation (e.g., AI, quantum, and infrastructure) without specifying a dollar amount or change in direction.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 10
Компаниис момента звонка
Клиенты
Клиенты
Arvind Krishna
ServiceNow uses IBM's AI tools to enhance its platform, indicating a deepening technology integration between the two companies.
Доказательства
“ServiceNow is leveraging Watson X automated data quality and observability to deliver AI-ready data and code generation to refresh legacy applications to modern application runtimes, including ServiceNow.”
Клиенты
Arvind Krishna
Visa relies on IBM for core modernization of its payment network, showing ongoing strategic importance.
Доказательства
“Visa continues to work with IBM on ongoing software and data modernization efforts, supporting the scale, resiliency, and performance of VisaNet.”
Клиенты
Arvind Krishna
Nestle is deploying AI with IBM's platform to optimize global supply chain operations.
Доказательства
“With Nestle, we're using NVIDIA-accelerated WatsonX.data to embed AI directly into core order-to-cash operations, enabling faster real-time insights across Nestlé's global supply chain.”
Клиенты
Arvind Krishna
NatWest is modernizing its mainframe with IBM's AI tools, indicating demand for mainframe AI capabilities.
Доказательства
“clients such as NatWest and RBC are modernizing their mainframe environments using AI and automation capabilities, including Watson X Assistant and Watson X Code Assistant for Z, to improve resiliency, security, and developer productivity.”
Партнёры
Партнёры
Arvind Krishna
Arm's software ecosystem is expanding onto IBM Z, potentially increasing Arm's presence in mission-critical enterprise environments.
Доказательства
“we announced a strategic collaboration with Arm to expand how AI workloads run across IBM infrastructure.”
Партнёры
Arvind Krishna
IBM and NVIDIA are deepening their partnership on GPU-accelerated analytics, benefiting NVIDIA's enterprise AI adoption.
Доказательства
“During the quarter, we also announced strategic collaborations with NVIDIA, expanding our work across GPU-native analytics.”
Цепочка поставок
Цепочка поставок
Jim Cavanaugh
IBM CFO acknowledged memory supply chain dislocation and cost increases, though said the impact is de minimis to IBM, implying memory prices are rising and affecting the broader hardware market. — Rising memory costs pressure hardware margins across the industry but benefit memory suppliers like Micron; IBM's downplay suggests it has mitigated impact through supply chain management.
Доказательства
“supply chain dislocation, around commodity cost increases, in particular around memory. It has a de minimis impact to us overall.”
Цепочка поставок
IBM cited 'a very dislocated hardware supply chain market' as a factor behind Red Hat Enterprise Linux (REL) deceleration, indicating hardware availability constraints are slowing enterprise Linux adoption. — Hardware supply chain dislocations are delaying enterprise infrastructure upgrades, potentially impacting revenue for server vendors like HPE and Dell.
Jim CavanaughВнешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 2с момента звонка
IBM CFO acknowledged memory supply chain dislocation and cost increases, though said the impact is de minimis to IBM, implying memory prices are rising and affecting the broader hardware market.
IBM cited 'a very dislocated hardware supply chain market' as a factor behind Red Hat Enterprise Linux (REL) deceleration, indicating hardware availability constraints are slowing enterprise Linux adoption.
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 10. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.