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FY2025 Q4
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Отчётный звонок Howmet Aerospace Inc.
Вывод Buzzberg
Gas turbine business expected to double in three to five years
Howmet Aerospace reported a strong Q4 2025 and provided a robust outlook for 2026, with revenue expected to grow about 11% to $9.1B and free cash flow of $1.6B. The company is investing heavily in gas turbine capacity to meet what it sees as a doubling in demand over the next 3-5 years driven by data centers. Q4 2025 revenue was $2.17B (+15% YoY), EBITDA $653M (+29%), EPS $1.05 (+42%).
Вывод Buzzberg Gas turbine business expected to double in three to five years Howmet Aerospace reported a strong Q4 2025 and provided a robust outlook for 2026, with revenue expected to grow about 11% to $9.1B and free cash flow of $1.6B. The company is investing heavily in gas turbine capacity to meet what it sees as a doubling in demand over the next 3-5 years driven by data centers. Q4 2025 revenue was $2.17B (+15% YoY), EBITDA $653M (+29%), EPS $1.05 (+42%). Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
Howmet Aerospace reported a strong Q4 2025 and provided a robust outlook for 2026, with revenue expected to grow about 11% to $9.1B and free cash flow of $1.6B. The company is investing heavily in gas turbine capacity to meet what it sees as a doubling in demand over the next 3-5 years driven by data centers. Q4 2025 revenue was $2.17B (+15% YoY), EBITDA $653M (+29%), EPS $1.05 (+42%).
- 2026 guidance: Revenue $9.1B ± $100M, EBITDA $2.76B ± $50M, EPS $4.45, FCF $1.6B.
- Gas turbine business expected to double from ~$1B to $2B over 3-5 years.
- Engine spares demand for F-35 exceeded OE demand, signaling strong aftermarket.
ENGINE Выручка$1.16BФакт
ENGINEERED_STRUCTURES Выручка$0.287BФакт
FASTENERS Выручка$0.454BФакт
FORGED_WHEELS Выручка$0.27BФакт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Capex
2026 CapEx midpoint $470M, could rise; more in 2027
Demand
Commercial aerospace backlog is extraordinary, supports growth
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Demand
Spares growth accelerated to 33% in 2025, now 21% of revenue
Buybacks
Share buybacks continue robustly; $150M in early 2026
Guidance
2026 EBITDA margin guided to 30.3%, slightly below Q4 exit rate
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| ENGINE Выручка | $1.16B | Факт |
| ENGINEERED_STRUCTURES Выручка | $0.287B | Факт |
| FASTENERS Выручка | $0.454B | Факт |
| FORGED_WHEELS Выручка | $0.27B | Факт |
| Выручка | $2.168B | Факт |
| EPS | $1.05 | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Капзатраты | FY2026 | $0.45B–$0.49B | $0.47B | Начат |
| EPS | FY2026 | $4.44–$4.46 | $4.45 | Начат |
| EPS | FY2026 Q1 | $1.09–$1.11 | $1.10 | Начат |
| Свободный денежный поток | FY2026 | $1.55B–$1.65B | $1.6B | Начат |
| Выручка | FY2026 | $9B–$9.2B | $9.1B | Начат |
| Выручка | FY2026 Q1 | $2.225B–$2.245B | $2.235B | Начат |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Bullish
Management expressed strong confidence in growth across commercial aerospace, defense, and especially gas turbines, while also being proactive in capital deployment and M&A.
Оценка AI от менеджмента
Management discussed AI indirectly as a driver of data center electricity demand, which is fueling growth in the gas turbine business. They noted that 'the demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers, is extremely high' and this is a key growth driver.
Инвестиции и мощности
Management is significantly increasing capital expenditure, with 2025 record CapEx of $453 million and 2026 guided to approximately $470 million (possibly higher). This investment is primarily for expanding capacity in engines (commercial aerospace and gas turbines), including building out five new manufacturing plants and a recently purchased additional facility for gas turbines.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 9
Компаниис момента звонка
Клиенты
Клиенты
John Plant
Howmet supplies turbine blades to Siemens Energy; demand is driven by data center power needs.
Доказательства
“covering our key customers at GE Venova, Seams Power, Mitsubishi Heavy, Ansaldo, Solar and Baker Hughes”
Цепочка поставок
Цепочка поставок
John Plant
Howmet's gas turbine business is expected to double from ~$1B to $2B in revenue over the next 3-5 years, driven by data center power demand, and they are expending significant capex on this. — This is a major multi-year growth signal for the gas turbine supply chain, indicating robust demand for power generation equipment for data centers which likely benefits those OEMs and related infrastructure providers.
Доказательства
“we expect that our base business of approximately $1 billion should double in revenue to $2 billion over the next three to five years.”
Цепочка поставок
John Plant
Engine spares demand for the F-35 has exceeded OE demand in value for 2025, indicating a large and growing installed base driving aftermarket revenue. — This signals strong utilization, and potentially durability/maintenance issues, on the F-35 fleet, which could have positive implications for the entire defense supply chain and aftermarket providers.
Доказательства
“for our engine product segments in 2025, The F-35's spares demand exceeded the OE demand for the aggregate value of parts provided.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 3с момента звонка
Howmet's gas turbine business is expected to double from ~$1B to $2B in revenue over the next 3-5 years, driven by data center power demand, and they are expending significant capex on this.
Engine spares demand for the F-35 has exceeded OE demand in value for 2025, indicating a large and growing installed base driving aftermarket revenue.
Management assumes Boeing 737 production at 40/month (42 daily average) and 787 at 7/month rising to 8, while Airbus A320 is 60/month and A350 at 6/month.
Доказательства
“For Boeing, the 737 assumption is 40 aircraft per month based on a rate of 42 as a daily average... For Oebus, the A320 is assumed to be 60 a month, while the A350 is at 6 per month.”
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 9. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.