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FY2025 Q4
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Отчётный звонок Honeywell International Inc.
Вывод Buzzberg
Record backlog of $37B drives 2026 growth conviction
Honeywell reported a strong Q4 2025 beat and provided 2026 guidance of 3-6% organic sales growth and 6-9% EPS growth, driven by record backlog and price execution. The company is advancing its spin-off plans with aerospace expected to separate in Q3 2026 and automation businesses being streamlined. Key cross-company signals include partnerships with NVIDIA and major financial institutions in quantum computing, and improved aerospace supply chain performance. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS $2.59 (up 17% YoY) and FCF $2.5B (up 48%), both above guidance.
Вывод Buzzberg Record backlog of $37B drives 2026 growth conviction Honeywell reported a strong Q4 2025 beat and provided 2026 guidance of 3-6% organic sales growth and 6-9% EPS growth, driven by record backlog and price execution. The company is advancing its spin-off plans with aerospace expected to separate in Q3 2026 and automation businesses being streamlined. Key cross-company signals include partnerships with NVIDIA and major financial institutions in quantum computing, and improved aerospace supply chain performance. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS $2.59 (up 17% YoY) and FCF $2.5B (up 48%), both above guidance. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
Honeywell reported a strong Q4 2025 beat and provided 2026 guidance of 3-6% organic sales growth and 6-9% EPS growth, driven by record backlog and price execution. The company is advancing its spin-off plans with aerospace expected to separate in Q3 2026 and automation businesses being streamlined. Key cross-company signals include partnerships with NVIDIA and major financial institutions in quantum computing, and improved aerospace supply chain performance. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS $2.59 (up 17% YoY) and FCF $2.5B (up 48%), both above guidance.
- FY2026 guidance: Sales $38.8-39.8B (org 3-6%), EPS $10.35-10.65 (+6-9%), FCF $5.3-5.6B.
- Aerospace spin expected in Q3 2026; advanced materials spin completed in Oct 2025.
- Record backlog of $37B+ with orders up 23% in Q4, driven by long-cycle aerospace and energy.
Выручка$6.86B-34% к/к
EPS$5.18Факт
Валовая маржа36.06%Факт
Операционная маржа10.41%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Portfolio
Aerospace spin expected in Q3 2026, ahead of plan
AI
Quantinium raises $840M at $10B valuation, launches Helios
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Portfolio
PSS and warehouse businesses to be sold in H1 2026
Pricing
Pricing expected ~3.5% in 2026, above historical levels
Margins
Stranded costs from spins to be eliminated in 12-18 months
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| Выручка | $6.86B | -34% к/к |
| EPS | $5.18 | Факт |
| Валовая маржа | 36.06% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 10.41% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $1.117B | Факт |
| Капзатраты | $0.058B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2026 | $10.35–$10.65 | $10.50 | Начат |
| Свободный денежный поток | FY2026 | $5.3B–$5.6B | $5.45B | Начат |
| Операционная маржа | FY2026 | 22.7%–23.1% | 22.9% | Начат |
| Операционная маржа | FY2026 Q1 | 22.4%–22.6% | 22.5% | Начат |
| Выручка | FY2026 | $38.8B–$39.8B | $39.3B | Начат |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Confident
Management expressed strong conviction in delivering 2026 guidance, highlighted record backlog, robust order growth, and progress on portfolio simplification, while acknowledging specific headwinds but framing them as manageable.
Оценка AI от менеджмента
Management discussed Quantinium's progress in quantum computing, including a $840 million raise at a $10 billion valuation, the launch of Helios, the world's most accurate commercial quantum computer, and a partnership with NVIDIA to integrate quantum with AI. They are investing more R&D to maintain leadership and plan an eventual IPO or strategic investment.
Инвестиции и мощности
Management expects capital expenditures to increase by roughly $250 million in 2026 to support growth investments tied to orders already in backlog, with a large share going to aerospace supply chain expansion. This increase will be funded by improvements in working capital efficiency, particularly focused on aerospace inventory.
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Компаниис момента звонка
Клиенты
BBD.B
Клиенты
Mike Stepniak
The Bombardier agreement was a one-time boost in 2024; its exclusion shows underlying organic growth is lower, indicating no sustained demand from Bombardier beyond that.
Доказательства
“Sales grew 11% organically, or 6% excluding the impact of the 2024 Bombardier Agreement”
Партнёры
Партнёры
Vimal Kapur
NVIDIA's partnership with Quantinium positions both companies at the forefront of quantum-AI convergence, potentially driving demand for NVIDIA's hardware in quantum computing applications.
Доказательства
“Continuum also announced a partnership to integrate Helios with Nvidia's AI supercomputing technology to create powerful new architecture that can solve the world's most pressing challenges.”
Партнёры
Vimal Kapur
JPMorgan is leveraging Quantinium's quantum technology for cybersecurity and encryption, signaling increasing institutional adoption of quantum computing.
Доказательства
“Close collaborative with shareholders such as Quanta, NVIDIA, JP Morgan, Amgen, and Mitsui have led to new commercial partnerships that are supporting the development of critical applications for improving drug discovery, cybersecurity,”
Цепочка поставок
Цепочка поставок
Mike Stepniak
Honeywell is pursuing acquisition of Johnson Matthey's Catalyst Technologies business, which would strengthen its position in catalyst and process technology.
Доказательства
“does not incorporate the pending acquisition on Johnson & Matty's Catalyst Technologies business”
Цепочка поставок
Vimal Kapur
Aerospace supply chain constraints are largely resolved; Honeywell is 'close to PO now, hardly with any past due' indicating capacity has improved and volume can scale. — Improved delivery performance means aerospace OEMs and aftermarket can expect fewer delays, potentially boosting their own production rates and margins.
Доказательства
“we are close to PO now, hardly with any past due, which shows that we have ability to meet their needs of the volume they are looking for.”
Цепочка поставок
Mike Stepniak
Catalyst shipments in petrochemicals have been delayed due to overcapacity, but 'can only be deferred for a period of time' suggesting pent-up demand that will eventually materialize. — If deferrals reverse, Honeywell's UOP business (energy and sustainability) could see a sharp uptick in catalyst orders, benefiting suppliers to the petrochemical industry.
Доказательства
“Catalyst shipments can be temporarily delayed in the short term, but are ultimately necessary for our customers to maintain yields. And those can only be deferred for a period of time.”
Цепочка поставок
Vimal Kapur
Data center exposure in building automation is becoming material, now exceeding 5% of revenue, up from near zero a couple years ago. — Honeywell's growing data center revenue indicates strong demand for BMS, fire safety, and security in hyperscale facilities, which is a positive read for other data-center-infrastructure suppliers.
Доказательства
“data center overall position of Honeywell in building automation is becoming slowly material. We are inching towards that becoming greater than 5% of our revenue. Think about it, that number was zero a couple of years back.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 4с момента звонка
Aerospace supply chain constraints are largely resolved; Honeywell is 'close to PO now, hardly with any past due' indicating capacity has improved and volume can scale.
Catalyst shipments in petrochemicals have been delayed due to overcapacity, but 'can only be deferred for a period of time' suggesting pent-up demand that will eventually materialize.
Data center exposure in building automation is becoming material, now exceeding 5% of revenue, up from near zero a couple years ago.
Honeywell has 'already neutralized the advanced materials stranded costs in 2026', implying the Solstice spin-off is no longer a drag and margins should improve without that headwind.
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 12. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.