Equifax reported strong Q3 with revenue of $1.54B (+7%) and raised full-year guidance. Key themes: aggressive VantageScore pricing to take share from FICO, government vertical acceleration from OB3 legislation, cloud-driven innovation with AI products, and twin indicator rollouts to differentiate credit files. Management struck a confident tone on medium-term growth despite mortgage and hiring headwinds. Raised FY2025 revenue guidance by $40M and EPS by $0.12; free cash flow guidance increased to $950-975M.
Equifax reported strong Q3 with revenue of $1.54B (+7%) and raised full-year guidance. Key themes: aggressive VantageScore pricing to take share from FICO, government vertical acceleration from OB3 legislation, cloud-driven innovation with AI products, and twin indicator rollouts to differentiate credit files. Management struck a confident tone on medium-term growth despite mortgage and hiring headwinds. Raised FY2025 revenue guidance by $40M and EPS by $0.12; free cash flow guidance increased to $950-975M.
Equifax reported strong Q3 with revenue of $1.54B (+7%) and raised full-year guidance. Key themes: aggressive VantageScore pricing to take share from FICO, government vertical acceleration from OB3 legislation, cloud-driven innovation with AI products, and twin indicator…
Raised FY2025 revenue guidance by $40M and EPS by $0.12; free cash flow guidance increased to $950-975M.
VantageScore mortgage pricing at $4.50/score vs FICO's $10 creates a $550 savings per pull and $4.50 incremental profit for Equifax; potential $100-200M annual profit upside.
Government vertical momentum: OB3 legislation forces states to reduce SNAP error rates (>6%) or pay billions; Equifax's TWIN solutions see rapid pipeline growth.
Management discussed deploying EFX.AI across the enterprise, with new AI-powered products like Ignite AI Advisor, EFX IQ, and fraud models driving product innovation and customer value. They are seeing strong market validation and plan to share more metrics on revenue and cost efficiency from AI in 2026.
USIS non-mortgage revenue growth improved sequentially, signaling momentum.. Management expressed confidence in post-cloud momentum, NPI success, and the VantageScore opportunity, while acknowledging challenges in mortgage conversion and hiring weakness.
Management expressed confidence in post-cloud momentum, NPI success, and the VantageScore opportunity, while acknowledging challenges in mortgage conversion and hiring weakness.
“When we sell a FICO score in 2026, it's going to cost us $10. When we sell a Vantage score, we're going to make $450. But when we sell a Vantage score versus FICO, the industry is going to save $550.”
“We're delivering the twin indicator alongside our USIS credit file at no incremental cost in all verticals in order to differentiate our credit file and drive incremental growth and share gains.”
“At current error rates, nearly $12 billion in SNAP benefit costs would shift from the federal government to the states, making our TWIN solutions even more attractive to drive those error rates down.”
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2025 Q4 | $1.98–$2.08 | $2.03 | GUIDED |
| EPS | FY2025 | 3.6%–5%above к консенсусу | 4.3% | RAISED |
| Free cash flow | FY2025 | $0.95B–$0.975Babove к консенсусу | $0.9625B | RAISED |
| Op margin | FY2025 Q4 | 33%–33.3% | 33.15% | GUIDED |
| Op marginUSIS | FY2025 | 34.9%–35.2% | 35.05% | LOWERED |
| Revenue | FY2025 Q4 | 6.5% | 6.5% | GUIDED |
| Revenue | FY2025 | 6.1%–6.7%above к консенсусу | 6.4% | MAINTAINED |
| Дата прогноза | Показатель | Целевой период | Прогноз | Факт | Результат |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 Q1 | EPS | FY2026 Q2 | $2.15–$2.25 | $2.25 | Met / beat |
| FY2026 Q1 | Revenue | FY2026 Q2 | $1.68B–$1.71B | $1.7001B | Met / beat |
Equifax's new VantageScore pricing ($4.50/score) vs FICO ($10) creates a $550 savings per pull for customers, and for Equifax a $4.50 incremental profit per VantageScore vs a $10 cost per FICO score – a potential $100-200M annual profit upside at full adoption. — This can structurally shift profit from FICO to Equifax as mortgage lenders adopt VantageScore, and sets up a multi-year competitive dynamic in credit scoring.
“FICO has taken up pricing for mortgage credit scores at a CAGR of over 100% per year over the last four years, including a 2X increase to $10 per score in 2026.”
… EBITDA margin at 35.2% was up 130 basis points compared to last year. We are seeing the benefits of cost savings from our cloud migration, which we completed in the second half of last year, as well as operating leverage from revenue growth in the quarter. Turning to slide eight, two weeks ago, Equifax announced we are expanding our Vantage 4.0 mortgage credit score offerings in response to FICO's aggressive price actions. FICO has taken up pricing for mortgage credit scores at a CAGR of over 100% per year over the last four years, including a 2X increase to $10 per score in 2026. even after losing their 30-year monopoly position with the federally guaranteed mortgages in July. Importantly, we detailed steps to drive competition in the mortgage credit scoring market, drive conversion to Vantage Score 4.0, and deliver over $100 to $200 million of savings to our mortgage customers and consumers. Specifically, Vantage 4.0 for mortgage will be priced at $450 a score to accelerate conversions to the higher-performing, lower-cost Vantage Score 4.0. We'll also hold the 450 price through the end of 2027 to give customers confidence in the conversion. In 2026, the trended credit …
Equifax's Twin indicator (linking employment data to credit files) is being offered at no cost to differentiate the credit file and drive share gains, with early adoption in mortgage and auto, and planned expansion into all verticals. — This unique data advantage locks in customers and makes Equifax's credit file stickier, potentially taking share from TransUnion and Experian.
… file. Our ability to deliver information to our customers from the work number alongside a credit report provides value only Equifax can deliver to our customers. Understanding a consumer's employment status along with their credit file adds valuable information in the marketing process to tailor application strategies that drive higher approval rates and speed and efficiencies for our customers. As a reminder, we're delivering the twin indicator alongside our USIS credit file at no incremental cost in all verticals in order to differentiate our credit file and drive incremental growth and share gains. Our new mortgage pre-qual credit file solution with a twin indicator differentiates our credit file with incremental data, including work status, employer name, and potentially some levels of historic income. This unique solution is helping mortgage lenders optimize their marketing processes and delivering more certainty for an applicant to accelerate the underwriting process. This is in addition to our unique telco utility and pay TV attributes that will also be delivered alongside our traditional mortgage credit file at no charge. The use of these expanded data insights …