Guidance
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FY2026 Q2
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Отчётный звонок Deere & Company
Вывод Buzzberg
2026 expected to mark bottom of the ag cycle
Deere reported mixed Q2 results with strong growth in construction and small ag segments offset by weakness in large ag. Management reiterated its view that FY2026 marks the bottom of the ag cycle and expects a recovery in 2027, supported by lower inventories and favorable policy developments. Q2 results included a one-time $272 million tariff refund, boosting margins; ongoing tariff run-rate remains at $1.2 billion.
Вывод Buzzberg 2026 expected to mark bottom of the ag cycle Deere reported mixed Q2 results with strong growth in construction and small ag segments offset by weakness in large ag. Management reiterated its view that FY2026 marks the bottom of the ag cycle and expects a recovery in 2027, supported by lower inventories and favorable policy developments. Q2 results included a one-time $272 million tariff refund, boosting margins; ongoing tariff run-rate remains at $1.2 billion. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
Deere reported mixed Q2 results with strong growth in construction and small ag segments offset by weakness in large ag. Management reiterated its view that FY2026 marks the bottom of the ag cycle and expects a recovery in 2027, supported by lower inventories and favorable policy developments. Q2 results included a one-time $272 million tariff refund, boosting margins; ongoing tariff run-rate remains at $1.2 billion.
- Construction & Forestry segment saw 29% YoY growth in Q2, driven by robust infrastructure and data center demand. Full-year sales guide raised to up 20%.
- South America industry outlook was cut to a decline of 15% from 5%, citing high interest rates, strong BRL, and input costs.
- Fleet age and used inventory levels are improving, supporting expectations for a large ag recovery in 2027.
Выручка$13.369B+39% к/к
EPS$6.55Факт
Валовая маржа38.17%Факт
Операционная маржа22.48%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Demand
Construction order book up 60%, over 80% of slots filled
Tariffs
Tariff refund of $272 million recognized, but annual exposure unchanged
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Pricing
Company deliberately avoiding customer tariff surcharges
Recurring Revenue
Precision subscription renewals exceed 90% for second-year cohort
Market Share
Brazil delivering share gains and double-digit margins at trough
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| Выручка | $13.369B | +39% к/к |
| EPS | $6.55 | Факт |
| Валовая маржа | 38.17% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 22.48% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $0.874B | Факт |
| Капзатраты | $1.058B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Операционная маржаCONSTRUCTION_AND_FORESTR | FY2026 | 10%–12% | 11% | Повышен |
| Операционная маржаPRODUCTION_AND_PRECISION | FY2026 | 11%–13% | 12% | Подтверждён |
| Операционная маржаSMALL_AG_AND_TURF | FY2026 | 13.5%–15% | 14.25% | Подтверждён |
| ВыручкаCONSTRUCTION_AND_FORESTR | FY2026 | 20% | 20% | Повышен |
| ВыручкаPRODUCTION_AND_PRECISION | FY2026 | -10%–-5% | -7.5% | Подтверждён |
| ВыручкаSMALL_AG_AND_TURF | FY2026 | 15% | 15% | Подтверждён |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Confident
Management struck a confident tone, repeatedly pointing to portfolio diversification, share gains, and a view that 2026 is the ag cycle bottom while acknowledging tariff and input-cost headwinds.
Инвестиции и мощности
Management reiterated a long-term commitment to U.S. manufacturing, citing $20 billion in planned U.S. manufacturing investments over the next 10 years and a $70 million expansion to build excavators in North Carolina; it also stressed sustaining record R&D and capital investment through the cycle.
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 2с момента звонка
Deere is facing a $1.2B annual run-rate tariff expense, but received a one-time $272M refund this quarter, that is not included in the run rate.
Доказательства
“our overall run rate, uh, for tariff expense really remains, um, you know, un unchanged at about, um, you know, a billion two for the full year. Those splits that we've provided in the past, you know, really haven't changed as well. So it'…”
Deere's new excavator from Kernersville, NC has all production slots filled for the year, indicating a strong reception to their domestic manufacturing push.
Доказательства
“And we continue to stand behind our commitment towards 20 billion of investments in U.S. manufacturing over the next 10 years.”
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 0. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.