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FY2026 Q1
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Отчётный звонок Deere & Company
Вывод Buzzberg
Company says 2026 marks bottom of current cycle
Deere reported a strong Q1 with better-than-expected results but provided a cautious outlook that earnings for the season are at bottom. The company raised its full-year EPS guidance and highlighted resilience in construction and small ag while noting stabilization in large tractor demand. Tariffs remain a significant overhang. Q1 EPS of $2.42, a 6% beat vs expectations, with upside driven by better shipment volumes and operational efficiencies.
Вывод Buzzberg Company says 2026 marks bottom of current cycle Deere reported a strong Q1 with better-than-expected results but provided a cautious outlook that earnings for the season are at bottom. The company raised its full-year EPS guidance and highlighted resilience in construction and small ag while noting stabilization in large tractor demand. Tariffs remain a significant overhang. Q1 EPS of $2.42, a 6% beat vs expectations, with upside driven by better shipment volumes and operational efficiencies. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
Deere reported a strong Q1 with better-than-expected results but provided a cautious outlook that earnings for the season are at bottom. The company raised its full-year EPS guidance and highlighted resilience in construction and small ag while noting stabilization in large tractor demand. Tariffs remain a significant overhang. Q1 EPS of $2.42, a 6% beat vs expectations, with upside driven by better shipment volumes and operational efficiencies.
- Raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $4.5-5.0 billion (from prior $4.0-4.5 billion), citing stronger small ag, construction, and forestry performance.
- Construction and forestry segment saw net sales up 34% in Q1, with industry outlooks for North America raised to up 5%.
- Large tractor order books now extend into Q4, signaling firming demand and potential market share gains.
Выручка$9.611B-21% к/к
EPS$2.42-38% к/к
Валовая маржа34.66%Факт
Операционная маржа16.18%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Demand
Construction order bank up over 50% in quarter
Demand
Large tractor order books provide fourth-quarter visibility
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Costs
Tariffs still projected at about $1.2 billion for 2026
Used Equipment
Late-model used 8R inventories down sharply
AI/Construction
AI infrastructure investment supports construction demand
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| Выручка | $9.611B | -21% к/к |
| EPS | $2.42 | -38% к/к |
| Валовая маржа | 34.66% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 16.18% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $-1.578B | Факт |
| Капзатраты | $0.688B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Свободный денежный потокEQUIPMENT_OPERATIONS | FY2026 | $4.5B–$5.5B | $5B | Повышен |
| Операционная маржаCONSTRUCTION_FORESTRY | FY2026 | 9%–11% | 10% | Повышен |
| ВыручкаTOTAL_EQUIPMENT_OPERATIO | FY2026 | 15% | 15% | Повышен |
| ВыручкаSMALL_AG_TURF | FY2026 | 15% | 15% | Повышен |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Optimistic
Management repeatedly framed 2026 as the cyclical bottom, highlighted stronger order books and momentum in construction and small ag, and sounded confident despite acknowledging challenged large ag fundamentals and tariff headwinds.
Оценка AI от менеджмента
Management referenced AI mainly as a macro demand driver for construction equipment, citing huge infrastructure needs tied to AI investments. They also highlighted precision/automation technology adoption, such as combine harvest automation, as a competitive strength.
Инвестиции и мощности
Management emphasized maintaining high levels of investment through the cycle to fund new product launches, technology introductions, and the Tenna acquisition. No specific capex figure was given, but the tone was clearly pro-investment while still returning cash to shareholders.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 6
Компаниис момента звонка
Партнёры
Партнёры
Brian Campbell
New product debuts from the collaboration are expected to be a source of growth for the partnership.
Доказательства
“The ConExpo event will feature 24 product launches, including world premieres of equipment from John Deere and six market debuts from the Vertcon Group.”
Конкуренты
Конкуренты
Brian Campbell
Deere is establishing its own machine design to differentiate from existing Hitachi collaboration, which may be poised to reduce competition/ reliance over time.
Доказательства
“We've had a longstanding relationship with Hitachi with good products. This is a truly differentiated product that we're super excited to bring to the marketplace.”
Цепочка поставок
Цепочка поставок
Josh Beal
Deere's CNF order book rose by over 50% in Q1, reaching its highest level since May 2024, with visibility into H2, prompting a raise in construction industry outlook to +5% for 2026. — Order acceleration in Deere's construction segment signals broader market strength that may benefit key competitors but also intensifies competition.
Доказательства
“What's perhaps most encouraging is that our order bank has risen by over 50% in the past quarter, reaching its highest point since May of 2024.”
Цепочка поставок
Josh Beal
Large tractor order books now provide visibility into Q4, indicating a demand inflection and potential market share gains as replacement demand returns. — Demand improvement and inventory control in large ag are positive for Deere's earnings power and may pressure competitors' pricing strategy.
Доказательства
“Large tractor order velocity for the North American market has picked up, and our rolling order books now provide visibility into the fourth quarter.”
Цепочка поставок
Josh Beal
Used inventory for combines dropped about 20% sequentially? — Rapid used inventory reduction enables a healthier trade cycle, which is a leading indicator for new-equipment demand in the sector.
Доказательства
“We saw a typical seasonal increase in used-year combines during our first quarter, However, current inventory levels for deer combines remain about 15% below their peak in March 2024 with model year distribution at a normal mix.”
Цепочка поставок
Josh Beal
Deere is anticipating sustained price-cost neutral performance despite tariff impacts, showing stable margins compared to prior periods. — Sustainable price discipline in tough macro conditions could serve as a benchmark for other players in the market.
Доказательства
“We'll be slightly unfavorable from a production cost standpoint, X tariffs, but overall, again, price cost neutral with the price actions that were taken.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 4с момента звонка
Deere's CNF order book rose by over 50% in Q1, reaching its highest level since May 2024, with visibility into H2, prompting a raise in construction industry outlook to +5% for 2026.
Large tractor order books now provide visibility into Q4, indicating a demand inflection and potential market share gains as replacement demand returns.
Used inventory for combines dropped about 20% sequentially?
Deere is anticipating sustained price-cost neutral performance despite tariff impacts, showing stable margins compared to prior periods.
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 6. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.