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FY2025 Q4
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Отчётный звонок Deere & Company
Вывод Buzzberg
Management sees fiscal 2026 as the bottom of the large ag cycle
Deere's Q4 2025 results showed resilient margins despite a severe ag downturn, but guidance for 2026 points to continued weakness in large ag, offset by growth in small ag/turf and construction/forestry. Management framed 2026 as the cycle bottom, with tariffs a major $1.2B headwind and a lean production strategy. FY2025 net income of $5B with 12.6% equipment ops margin, despite 13% sales decline.
Вывод Buzzberg Management sees fiscal 2026 as the bottom of the large ag cycle Deere's Q4 2025 results showed resilient margins despite a severe ag downturn, but guidance for 2026 points to continued weakness in large ag, offset by growth in small ag/turf and construction/forestry. Management framed 2026 as the cycle bottom, with tariffs a major $1.2B headwind and a lean production strategy. FY2025 net income of $5B with 12.6% equipment ops margin, despite 13% sales decline. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
Deere's Q4 2025 results showed resilient margins despite a severe ag downturn, but guidance for 2026 points to continued weakness in large ag, offset by growth in small ag/turf and construction/forestry. Management framed 2026 as the cycle bottom, with tariffs a major $1.2B headwind and a lean production strategy. FY2025 net income of $5B with 12.6% equipment ops margin, despite 13% sales decline.
- FY2026 guides net income $4-4.75B, with PPA sales down 5-10%, SAT/CNF up ~10%.
- North America large ag industry expected down 15-20% in 2026; Europe flat-to-up 5%, South America flat.
- Tariffs: $1.2B pre-tax impact in 2026 (~$600M incremental); price-cost expected positive.
EQUIPMENT_OPERATIONS Выручка$10.6BФакт
Выручка$12.094BФакт
EPS$3.93Факт
Валовая маржа32.57%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Margins
Direct tariff expense guided to about $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026
Production
Management plans lean Q1 large ag production but keeps back-half flexibility
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Inventory
Used inventory is improving through targeted pool funds and dealer focus
Demand
North American earth moving order book is up roughly 25% year over year
Technology
See & Spray adoption is scaling with roughly 50% average herbicide savings
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| EQUIPMENT_OPERATIONS Выручка | $10.6B | Факт |
| Выручка | $12.094B | Факт |
| EPS | $3.93 | Факт |
| Валовая маржа | 32.57% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 15.67% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $2.628B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Операционная маржаPRODUCTION_PRECISION_AG | FY2026 | 11%–13% | 12% | Обозначен |
| Операционная маржаSMALL_AG_TURF | FY2026 | 12.5%–14% | 13.25% | Обозначен |
| Операционная маржаCONSTRUCTION_FORESTRY | FY2026 | 8%–10% | 9% | Обозначен |
| ВыручкаPRODUCTION_PRECISION_AG | FY2026 | -10%–-5% | -7.5% | Обозначен |
| ВыручкаSMALL_AG_TURF | FY2026 | 8%–12% | 10% | Обозначен |
| ВыручкаCONSTRUCTION_FORESTRY | FY2026 | 9%–11% | 10% | Обозначен |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Cautiously Optimisti
Management acknowledged the down-cycle and tariff headwinds but repeatedly cited signs of stabilization, a likely 2026 trough in large ag, and growth in small ag/turf and construction/forestry.
Оценка AI от менеджмента
Management did not frame it as 'AI' explicitly but described accelerating adoption of its autonomy and precision stack: See & Spray covered >5M acres with ~50% herbicide savings, Harvest Settings automation took a >90% first-year take rate, and autonomous tillage has covered >200K acres. Monetization remains embedded in equipment/software attach and customer value creation rather than a separate A
Инвестиции и мощности
No standalone capex figure was disclosed. Management highlighted record R&D investment in fiscal 2025 and said it remains focused on supporting robust levels of R&D and capital spending to fund technology-led growth, implying capital investment is being maintained through the downturn.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 2
Компаниис момента звонка
Цепочка поставок
Цепочка поставок
Deanna Kovar
Deere will keep North American large ag production lean in Q1, avoiding the typical seasonal inventory build, with flexibility to ramp later — signaling ongoing retail weakness and used inventory overhang. — Competitors' production plans will be pressured to match Deere's cautious stance, potentially intensifying price competition.
Доказательства
“It's our intent to start the new fiscal year with lean production for North American large ag, while building flexibility in the full-year production plan to respond quickly when the market inflects.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 1с момента звонка
Deere will keep North American large ag production lean in Q1, avoiding the typical seasonal inventory build, with flexibility to ramp later — signaling ongoing retail weakness and used inventory overhang.
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 2. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.