Guidance
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APO
FY2025 Q4
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Отчётный звонок Apollo Global Management, Inc. (New)
Вывод Buzzberg
2026 FRE growth expected 20%+
Apollo reported exceptional full-year results for 2025, with record origination volumes and inflows, and management issued highly confident guidance for continued growth in 2026. The call focused heavily on their strong positioning versus competitors in the software sector and their ability to expand into new markets like 401k and traditional asset management. Record originations of over $300 billion and record inflows of $228 billion in 2025.
Вывод Buzzberg 2026 FRE growth expected 20%+ Apollo reported exceptional full-year results for 2025, with record origination volumes and inflows, and management issued highly confident guidance for continued growth in 2026. The call focused heavily on their strong positioning versus competitors in the software sector and their ability to expand into new markets like 401k and traditional asset management. Record originations of over $300 billion and record inflows of $228 billion in 2025. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
Apollo reported exceptional full-year results for 2025, with record origination volumes and inflows, and management issued highly confident guidance for continued growth in 2026. The call focused heavily on their strong positioning versus competitors in the software sector and their ability to expand into new markets like 401k and traditional asset management. Record originations of over $300 billion and record inflows of $228 billion in 2025.
- Provided explicit 2026 guidance: 20%+ FRE growth and 10% SRE growth, with $85 billion in retirement services inflows.
- Management highlighted a key competitive moat: significant under-exposure to the troubled software sector, positioning the firm to gain share from competitors.
- Apollo announced a partnership with Schroders and a move to acquire $9 billion in assets from public BDC ARI for its own balance sheet, capitalizing on structural market inefficiencies.
Выручка$8.114BФакт
TOTAL_MANAGED Выручка$938BФакт
EPS$2.47Факт
Валовая маржа69.66%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Inflows
Athene inflows target $85B for 2026
Guidance
SRE growth reaffirmed at 10% through 2029
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Risk
Software exposure deliberately low across businesses
Capital Deployment
ARI transaction de-risks 2026 SRE growth
Strategy
Positioned on offense in software
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| Выручка | $8.114B | Факт |
| TOTAL_MANAGED Выручка | $938B | Факт |
| EPS | $2.47 | Факт |
| Валовая маржа | 69.66% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 52.6% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $2.819B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ВыручкаFEE_RELATED_EARNINGS | FY2026 | 20% | 20% | Подтверждён |
| ВыручкаSPREAD_RELATED_EARNINGS | FY2026 | 10% | 10% | Подтверждён |
| ВыручкаRETIREMENT_SERVICES_INFL | FY2026 | $85B | $85B | Начат |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Confident
Management repeatedly emphasized strong execution, record results, and a clear growth path, expressing confidence in continued outperformance and competitive advantages.
Инвестиции и мощности
Management discussed infrastructure investment, particularly in next generation technology platforms, data and AI initiatives, which contributed to higher fee-related expenses in 2025. They expect continued investment in platform build-out to support six markets, with non-comp costs growing low double digits and comp costs high teens in 2026.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 9
Компаниис момента звонка
Клиенты
XAI.PVT
Клиенты
Jim Zelter
Apollo is providing financing for data center infrastructure being leased by xAI, positioning Apollo as a key capital provider in the AI infrastructure build-out.
Доказательства
“In December, we led a $3.5 billion capital solution to support Baylor's $5.4 billion acquisition and lease of data center infrastructure to a subsidiary of XAI.”
Клиенты
Jim Zelter
Apollo's loan to Russell Investments demonstrates its ability to provide large, bespoke financing solutions to asset managers.
Доказательства
“And lastly, our hybrid and credit franchise delivered a $1.2 billion in strategic financing for Russell Investments, providing long-term capital and enhanced balance sheet flexibility to support their continued expansion.”
Партнёры
Партнёры
Mark Rowan
Apollo's PRIV ETF with State Street is growing in size and is among top performers in its category, suggesting strong client adoption of liquid private credit products.
Доказательства
“And PRIV, our ETF with State Street, now approaches 700 million in size.”
Партнёры
Mark Rowan
Apollo's partnership with Schroders is expected to scale significantly, indicating a major channel for distributing private assets to a broader market.
Доказательства
“Traditional asset managers, you saw the announcement with Schroeders this morning, which I expect to grow into a multi-billion dollar partnership.”
Инвестиции
Инвестиции
Jim Zelter
Mentioned as counterparties in high-quality (IG) debt investments on Athene's balance sheet, indicating a low-risk software exposure.
Доказательства
“On Athene's balance sheet, we have de minimis exposure of 0.5%, which is virtually all IG rated, with hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Oracle.”
Инвестиции
Martin Kelly
Apollo is transferring assets from its public BDC (ARI) to its private balance sheet (Athene), a move that highlights a structural advantage in being able to allocate capital across different forms of public and private structures. — This trend suggests Apollo can be one of the few actors that can buy undervalued assets from listed vehicles, consolidating assets at attractive spreads away from public market scrutiny.
Доказательства
“The recently announced transaction with Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, ARI, is one such example where Athene will acquire, subject to ARI stockholder approval, $9 billion of commercial mortgage assets”
Цепочка поставок
Цепочка поставок
Mark Rowan
Apollo expects to deploy capital into the sports ecosystem, forecasting $30-50 billion of origination opportunities from its Sports Capital fund alone — This signals an aggressive push into sports financing, which could displace traditional lenders and provide new capital sources to teams and leagues, potentially increasing franchise valuations.
Доказательства
“In addition to deploying the six or so billion in the sports capital fund, I believe this ecosystem will generate 30 to 50 billion of origination opportunities.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 3с момента звонка
Apollo re-affirms its minimal exposure to the volatile software sector, with 0% exposure in its PE business and less than 2% of total AUM, positioning it to benefit from other managers' distress.
Apollo is transferring assets from its public BDC (ARI) to its private balance sheet (Athene), a move that highlights a structural advantage in being able to allocate capital across different forms of public and private structures.
Apollo expects to deploy capital into the sports ecosystem, forecasting $30-50 billion of origination opportunities from its Sports Capital fund alone
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 9. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.