Guidance
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ADM
FY2026 Q1
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Отчётный звонок Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Вывод Buzzberg
ADM raises 2026 EPS guidance on stronger margins
ADM delivered a strong Q1 2026, driven by robust crushing and ethanol margins following the EPA finalizing the RVO rule. Management significantly raised the full-year EPS guidance and provided a positive tone, highlighting continued strength in the biofuel policy environment and strong operational execution. ADM raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70, up from $3.60-$4.25, citing the constructive margin environment for crush and ethanol.
Вывод Buzzberg ADM raises 2026 EPS guidance on stronger margins ADM delivered a strong Q1 2026, driven by robust crushing and ethanol margins following the EPA finalizing the RVO rule. Management significantly raised the full-year EPS guidance and provided a positive tone, highlighting continued strength in the biofuel policy environment and strong operational execution. ADM raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70, up from $3.60-$4.25, citing the constructive margin environment for crush and ethanol. Читать полный анализСвернуть анализ
ADM delivered a strong Q1 2026, driven by robust crushing and ethanol margins following the EPA finalizing the RVO rule. Management significantly raised the full-year EPS guidance and provided a positive tone, highlighting continued strength in the biofuel policy environment and strong operational execution. ADM raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70, up from $3.60-$4.25, citing the constructive margin environment for crush and ethanol.
- Q1 report had ~$275M net negative mark-to-market impact, with majority expected to reverse in Q2, which will boost Q2 results.
- Ethanol margins are expected to remain strong, supported by 45Z benefits which are now guided at $150M for the year, up from $100M.
- US soybean crush run-rate jumped ~10% year-over-year in March, reflecting the industry's quick supply response to improved biofuel margins.
Выручка$20.49B+10% к/к
EPS$0.71-18% к/к
Валовая маржа5.96%Факт
Операционная маржа1.99%Факт
6 подтверждённых тезисов
Что важно сейчас
Самые значимые изменения по итогам звонка.
Margins
Ethanol margins strengthened, driven by RVO policy and exports
Margins
Soybean crush margins improved significantly
Показать ещё 3 тезиса
Guidance
Expects majority of $275M mark-to-market hit to reverse in Q2
Operational
Nutrition profitability up 42%, driven by flavors and recovery
Policy
45Z ethanol benefit raised to $150 million for 2026
Отчётный период
Фактические результаты
| Показатель | Факт | Изменение |
|---|---|---|
| Выручка | $20.49B | +10% к/к |
| EPS | $0.71 | -18% к/к |
| Валовая маржа | 5.96% | Факт |
| Операционная маржа | 1.99% | Факт |
| Свободный денежный поток | $-0.044B | Факт |
| Капзатраты | $0.194B | Факт |
Прогнозные данные
Прогноз компании
| Показатель | Период | Диапазон | Середина | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Капзатраты | FY2026 | $1.3B–$1.5B | $1.4B | Подтверждён |
| EPS | FY2026 | $4.15–$4.70 | $4.43 | Повышен |
AI, капзатраты и спрос
Оценка менеджмента
Constructive
Management is upbeat about the improved margin environment and policy clarity, raising guidance and emphasizing strong execution and growth opportunities.
Оценка AI от менеджмента
Management discussed using AI in workflows to reduce manual touchpoints, errors, and cycle times, and expanding automation and AI in supply chain management and freight and logistic networks.
Инвестиции и мощности
ADM maintains full-year 2026 CapEx in the range of $1.3 to $1.5 billion, with first quarter investments of $194 million. Capital is directed to cost savings projects, growth platforms, and digitization.
все упомянутые компании ниже: 5
Компаниис момента звонка
Клиенты
Клиенты
Juan Luciano
Winning an innovation award from Henkel signals ADM's biosolutions are gaining commercial traction with major consumer goods companies, potentially leading to greater volumes and high-margin revenue.
Доказательства
“A concrete example of this is a starch-based component we developed for fabric softeners, for which we were recognized earlier this year with the Best Innovation Contributor Award by Henkel Consumer Brands.”
Инвестиции
Инвестиции
Manish Patilwala
ADM's equity stake in Wilmar generated lower quarterly earnings, reflecting continued softer conditions in the Asian agribusiness and food processing sectors.
Доказательства
“Equity earnings from our investment in Wilmar was $66 million for the quarter, down 8% compared to the prior quarter.”
Цепочка поставок
Цепочка поставок
Juan Luciano
ADM confirms 45Z clean fuel tax credit impact for full year 2026 is now expected at $150 million, up from $100 million previously guided, indicating higher-than-anticipated government policy support benefits. — Higher 45Z benefits for ADM suggest the entire US ethanol industry may be benefiting more than expected from policy incentives, boosting margins for producers like Green Plains and big players like Bunge in crushing.
Доказательства
“So at this point in time, given what happened in the Q1, we are increasing the expected amount. I think we mentioned last time it was going to be $100 million. Now we're saying it's $150 million.”
Цепочка поставок
Juan Luciano
US soybean crush rates in March jumped 6% month-over-month and are running about 10% higher than last year, indicating a rapid supply response to the improved margin environment post-RVO rule. — A surge in US crush rates increases supply of soybean meal for livestock feed and soybean oil for renewable diesel, potentially affecting prices and margins for downstream customers like Tyson Foods and biofuel producers.
Доказательства
“So if you look at crash rates for March, we jumped 6%. So crash rates in March for North America run about 10% higher than last year.”
Внешние сигналы
Альфа цепочки поставок · 3с момента звонка
ADM confirms 45Z clean fuel tax credit impact for full year 2026 is now expected at $150 million, up from $100 million previously guided, indicating higher-than-anticipated government policy support benefits.
US soybean crush rates in March jumped 6% month-over-month and are running about 10% higher than last year, indicating a rapid supply response to the improved margin environment post-RVO rule.
The invert in the soy crush futures curve means forward margins are weaker; management attributes this to broad uncertainties (trade, energy, weather) that are holding back customers from forward-booking, keeping near-term demand spot-led.
Доказательства
“So I think the curve is reflecting that and to the extent that we move forward, and those dynamics continue, the curve may be extending forward.”
Методология и полнота
Анализ основан только на заявлениях менеджмента. Показаны все подтверждённые упоминания компаний: 5. Фактические результаты и прогнозы разделены. Публичные доказательства ограничены восемью короткими атрибутированными цитатами. AI-анализ может быть неполным или ошибочным — проверяйте важные утверждения по первоисточнику.