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Abaxx is trading at liquidation value of $25 USD with ATB securities is giving it a blue sky valuation of $2500 should they get success in just 5 of their current contracts. This does not account for their future contract launches (like Silver which was just launched with Crude contract on horizon and many more) and it doesn't account for their MarketOS sales which I believe could make it worth significantly more.
[ATB Securities Suggesting Upwards of $2500](https://preview.redd.it/lcvodpukuf9h1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=695d60617589cbb385100e47559eeb6faf4d43d3)
Some of you complained first time I posted that it was already tripled. Well now you can get it at a steep discount to their last raise about a month ago at \~$37 USD after it peaked already at \~$50 USD. No complaints now.
[2 Months ago. You can now get it on Robinhood due to TSX listing](https://preview.redd.it/jhum1wu7uf9h1.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce7fa585f04928b5060206ba97b9a5f49e3f2cd7)
[8 months ago. Never Change WSB.](https://preview.redd.it/5wdbaiafuf9h1.png?width=323&format=png&auto=webp&s=be8a225398574f6541b7f257af4f858caa6a7712)
**Liquidation Value**
Abaxx is a globally licensed exchange and clearinghouse building physically delivered futures benchmark contracts. This means they have direct regulated access to basically the entire globe such as China, USA, EU, and UK. Given the surge in demand due to prediction markets. Josh (Abaxx CEO) indicated companies were looking to buy ones with a budget of $750-1 billion at the biggest futures event of the year in Boca.
[Demand sits at $750m to $1 billion](https://preview.redd.it/4sklopxpuf9h1.png?width=539&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ec73201b04cebb99f7629e42135f823d1133f2b)
Understandably, don't take just his word for it. The last time a Singapore Exchange (SMX) that was similar was back in 2013 for $200 million inflation adjusted. But they did not have direct USA access and Abaxx's volumes are currently double when sold. Abaxx also has a cloud native infrastructure which supports high scalability or the significant onboarding Abaxx currently has.
Abaxx has 11 ISVs connected, 5 in pipeline. 8 clearing firms connected (including China starting on Monday) and 13 in pipeline. Keep in mind, Clearing Firms take large amounts of commitments. LIkely in the millions worth as well as committing to reserve funds. And they also have 22 brokers with 10 in pipeline. Most of these should be completed in the next 6 months. As trading surges, it is likely we see more onboarding so I am projecting this time next year we are about half of the connectivity of the major exchanges like ICE and CME.
Additionally Abaxx is currently onboarding to Bloomberg (you can search it, not done yet) and they just finished onboarding to LSEG.
I propose given all of this, they are easily valued at $750+ million confirming Josh's claim. This suggests they are trading at near liquidation value today. Very limited and protected downside.
Then you have the wildcard asset of their iron ore deposits. Abaxx did a reverse merger of NML back in 2020 which owns one of the worlds biggest green iron ore deposits. NPV value back in 2014 at full build out was $7.3–7.6 billion inflation adjusted. Typically you would see a spin out company here where a mining company pays for all of the mine building and Abaxx contributes the deposits. This could be worth $$200–600 million to Abaxx shareholders. It's highly illiquid and needs a strong iron ore market which lately has been steadily growing in price.
**The Future Valuations**
I have presented my case that I believe Abaxx is trading at liquidation. Now I will present my case how you get all of the future valuation basically for free as a call option that does not expire.
Benchmark commodity contracts are worth ALOT of money. Brent and WTI are worth billions due to the fees collected on trading. It's a money printing machine with 70% margins because competition is difficult.
I won't go to deep into futures markets though as I went more in depth 2 months ago that I posted here: [Abaxx Technologies: Overthrowing COMEX and ICE as the new global commodities exchange](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1sjdzem/abaxx_technologies_overthrowing_comex_and_ice_as/)
To help calculate the valuations of Abaxx for their current products you can use this tool. [https://abxx-calc.lovable.app/](https://abxx-calc.lovable.app/)
If you adjust Digital Title amplifier to 2x and LNG to 100% you get close to the valuations estimated by ATB securities.
I added a Lobster Maine Contract (defaulted to 0) to show you how easy Abaxx can grow revenue by just adding markets that aren't currently handled by exchanges today. CEO mentioned this in the past.
You can see that if they achieve this, they are sitting well below current valuation and suggests we should be trading upwards of $5+ billion. 5x from the current liquidation. All of that growth you get for free.
**Revenue Projections**
At current pace without any growth, Abaxx current sits around $17 million ARR. They earn 1 million every 14 trading days right now. I know the first thing you probably think is, "why is it a billion dollar company on so little revenue"? And the answer is to go look at my first DD where they were earning like \~$700k a quarter at the same share price. It should be very clear that Abaxx can grow their revenues exponentially and are priced as such.
Starting this Monday, one of the biggest China futures brokerages will be giving their customers access to Abaxx. All of the trading now is dominated by a small amount of traders in Singapore, Thailand and India. Imagine what they will be doing once they have connected all of China, USA, and EU into their exchange over the next 6 months.
My working theory is that Abaxx will be rebating most revenue back to traders while they focus on the chicken/egg problem with liquidity. Traders won't trade without liquidity, liquidity won't grow without traders. So we should expect 1-2% dilution in 2027. I think doing this will more likely secure benchmark status in all of their contracts. They just finished a raise one month ago giving them enough runway for about 6 more quarters.
I do believe with all of their connectivity upcoming they will be sitting at \~250k daily trading volume next year. This is worth around $200 million USD in revenue with still lots of exponential growth left.
[Trading Volumes without China, EU, UK, or USA](https://preview.redd.it/bfc4wi7vuf9h1.png?width=1514&format=png&auto=webp&s=63f40591309cf8c516663a51a8da6ca471e51995)
**Uplisting**
They finally got TSX uplisting. Which means now its approved for OTC trading on Robinhood. Before Robinhood didn't let you touch it because it didn't have a "proper" listing yet. This also means they now qualify for TSX indexes which should generate about 1.5 million worth of shared demand in the next 6 months.
They might be looking to uplist to Nasdaq this year along with Singapore as well. I suspect they are waiting for more exchange onboarding and trading though. Although with China onboarding Monday maybe we see uplisting in Octoberish.
If we see uplisting there that would be another 2 million + share demand from indexes there alone.
All past DDs here which go more in depth on different aspects such as ESG commodities and their tech.
[8 months ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1omm40e/abaxx_technologies_newest_clearing_house_and/), [4 months ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1r4n9hs/abaxx_technologies_real_time_collateral_of_real/), [2 months ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1sjdzem/abaxx_technologies_overthrowing_comex_and_ice_as/)
**Position**
I have since increased my position since my last post to 10k shares.
https://preview.redd.it/etda99opwf9h1.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e312bbd3e9d461cf2827f7535bc2219c9f40367
https://preview.redd.it/pb0l8x2wwf9h1.png?width=1167&format=png&auto=webp&s=e28bfe55afda14fbae451e572f20d941e5f35ee5