Stocks still near highs, but bulls aren't euphoric

The indexes have continued to grind out new highs after an extended rally since late March while AI themes hit extremes and the rally broadens out to those beyond AI. There's also a lot of chatter among analysts, commentators, and individuals that the market is too extended and/or that we're in a bubble. These takes are clearly skeptical, and it's the index prices that don't match. The AAII survey of individual investors lines up with that skepticism, but disbelief can last a while and the survey shows this isn't retail euphoria yet. The share of respondents that were bullish increased only by a small tick from a week ago, from 35.6% to 36.3% against a 37.5% historical average. The share that were bearish decreased more, from 41.9% to 37% against the historical average of 31%. The neutral share was 26.7%. Bearishness has run above its historical average for 17 consecutive weeks now, a period which includes the February-March selloff and the rally off of those lows. Bullishness was >40% for eight out of the 10 weeks prior to that selloff. Bears already have come down from 41.9% to 37% in the last week, so the surveys can keep "fixing" without us having to figure out if the top is in. This poll is the 6-month expectations, cutting off every Wednesday night at midnight eastern, and so it's also not a live barometer of sentiment. I think the dynamic to watch for is bulls >40% and bears retreating towards 31% or lower while the indexes hold towards the highs. A large bearish share of respondents is not a gloomy forecast on its own, and this number can continue to fall without stocks/indexes ripping higher (and some of that momentum is already fading week-over-week).