LISTEN UP YOU ABSOLUTE REGARDS
SpaceX IPO at 1.8 TRILLION. One point eight. TRILLION. Book is oversubscribed to hell, retail getting table scraps, foreigners completely locked out.
How does a smooth-brained autist like me get exposure? You don't. Unless you know the play.
EchoStar ($SATS) owns 2.2% of SpaceX straight up from the spectrum deals. No bullshit.
Math time retards:
2.2% of 1.8T = 39.6 BILLION in SpaceX equity.
SATS has 289 million shares.
39.6B รท 289M = $137 per share JUST from the SpaceX bags.
Current price? 127.
That means the entire rest of EchoStar (spectrum, operations, whatever the fuck) is trading at a discount. You're getting a free lottery ticket on the biggest IPO pop in history.
This thing is gonna gap the fuck up.
Low float on SpaceX. 30%+ short interest on SATS (hedgies who own real SpaceX are shorting this as a hedge). Retail regards who can't buy the actual IPO are gonna FOMO in hard. Foreigners using SATS as their only proxy. Pre-IPO deals with Anthropic and Google already cooking. Gamma squeeze combo meal.
I went full degen. Bought 400 of the 170/180 June 18 call spreads for 11.3k. Already marked at 20.4k.
My plan is braindead simple:
Sell 40% when SATS hits 155 (spread \~4.80)
Another 30% at 162 (spread \~7.20)
Diamond hands the rest to 180+ for those sweet 9-10 dollar spreads
If this bitch runs to 170 before the IPO on some news? I'm getting even more regarded. Selling half at 6.80-7 on the spread, another chunk at 8.25, and letting the last 20% ride to 9+.
Base case at 1.8T we're already printing. But this isn't base case. This is the melt-up where SpaceX opens at 2T+ and SATS catches the full regard strength.
This is the easiest asymmetric play in the market right now.
Positions: 400x 170/180 June 18 SATS call spreads (11.3k cost, 20.4k mark)
Not financial advice. I'm just a regard who likes rockets and hates paper hands.
Who's aping in with me? ๐๐
Edit: volume already picking up. This is gonna be biblical.