Why I'm watching the bond market

Most investors only watch their stocks, but the bond market is actually bigger than the stock market. When something is wrong with the economy... the bond market knows first. This is what I am seeing right now Last Tuesday the 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.19 percent, its highest level since July of 2007. The 10-year Treasury hit 4.69 percent, its highest reading since January of 2025. That is a 19-year high on the long bond! Yields cooled slightly this week on hopes of an Iran peace deal. But a recent Bank of America survey showed 62 percent of global fund managers now expect the 30-year yield to climb all the way to 6 percent. Private credit defaults just hit a record high. Mortgages, business loans, credit cards... every cost in the real economy is moving in the wrong direction. When these signals appear at once, it is not a coincidence. It is the market repricing. Next we should see cracks in the stock market. Just my 2 cents..