UAE ditching OPEC at the beginning of May

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/uae-opec-oil-iran.html Wild move on relatively short notice; seeing whether the rest of the cartel remains stable is a big thing to watch for, along with where exactly long-term oil prices settle after what will almost assuredly be an extended period of high volatility. We tend to see a range of like $55-90/bbl but only because the Gulf states deliberately hold back crude so it doesn't crash to their f&d floor of like below $30/bbl, but generally that comes with the agreement that they will release oil when prices start to seriously spike so that we don't get $100/bbl for long periods of time. If that coordination is gone (OPEC eventually dissolves) we could see a much wider range of oil prices going all the way down to near production cost, but with not much spare capacity, that means in true short supply conditions, it wouldn't be surprising to see $150+/bbl. The big thing is that the UAE absolutely does not make a move like this without us knowing, and approving. If you see other states leaving OPEC in the next 6 months, it could very well be that they just form a new cartel without Iran, since this move is nothing if not a huge signal that at least the UAE is turning their back on them.