u/JRshoe1997 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· 2026년 4월 20일, 16:51
· ⬆ 15 포인트
· 💬 11 개 댓글
| Reddit에서 보기 ↗
AI 요약
=== 요약 ===
- 게시물은 애보트 래버러토리즈(ABT)를 분석하며, 4개 사업 부문(의료기기, 제약, 영양, 진단)과 재무 건전성을 상세히 설명합니다.
- 작성자의 주장은 ABT가 영양 및 진단 부문의 일시적 역풍으로 인해 매력적인 멀티플(16배 EV/EBITDA)에 거래되는 고품질 저평가 '배당 왕'이며, 장기 매수 기회를 제공한다는 것입니다.
- 품질 평가: 잘 조사된 실사. 작성자는 체계적인 부문 분석을 제공하고, 특정 재무 지표를 언급하며, 위험을 인정하고 최근 실적을 맥락에 맞게 설명합니다.
=== 시장 심리 ===
강세
=== 투자 아이디어 ===
ABT - 롱 | 신뢰도: 0.85 | 심리: +0.7
발언자: u/JRshoe1997
주장:
1. 사실: ABT는 건강한 대차대조표와 지배적이며 경기 침체에 강한 부문(의료기기, 제약)을 가진 '배당 왕'이면서도 16배 EV/EBITDA 멀티플로 거래되며, 이는 수년래 최저 수준입니다.
2. 연결고리: 시장은 단기적 문제(영양 부문 소비자 반발, 팬데믹 이후 진단 부문 감소)에 대해 과도하게 주식을 처벌하여 안정적이고 성장하는 기업에 밸류에이션 갭을 만들고 있습니다.
3. 판결: ABT는 장기 가치 및 배당 성장 투자자에게 매수인 고품질 주식입니다.
4. 위험: 진행 중인 유아용 조제분유 소송이 영양 부문을 해치고 있으며, Exact Sciences의 대규모 인수/통합이 진단 부문을 안정화하는 데 실패할 위험이 있습니다.
기간: 장기
핵심 포인트:
- 의료기기: 사업의 50%, 깊은 해자
- 매력적인 16배 EV/EBITDA 밸류에이션
- 배당 왕, 건강한 대차대조표
- 위험: 영양 소송, 진단 인수
- 장기적 인구통계학적 호재
점수15
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추천 %80%
▶ 전체 게시글 텍스트
Abbott (ABT) is a huge American health/lab company that sells medical devices, drugs, food, and many other products you use or have heard of. While the market is basically close to all time highs has lagged significantly the broader indexes. Being down over 30% from its highs and down over 22% this year so far. The question becomes is this a potential buy. Let’s go over the business itself.
Abbott operates in 4 main segments. Medical Devices, Pharmaceuticals, Nutrition, and Diagnostics. Based on your views of the segments is where the bullish or bearish segments are going to come from. Let’s start with hands down their gold star division.
1. Medical Devices: this hands down their best division within the company and their main one. It makes up close to 50% of the total business. This business mainly deals with machines and technology used in hospital labs and on the patients themselves. It also has a fast growing diabetics part with their Libre products within this segment. This segment is hands down the biggest moat within the company. A lot of these products and equipment are tied towards the core infrastructure of hospitals. Hospitals are already massively underfunded and receive their money either through the government or donations from private institutions or charities. Basically removing Abbott will basically require hospitals to uproot their entire infrastructure which is not feasible in the slightest. This segment has been growing considerably almost every year and is showing no signs of slowing down. Not to mention this segment is basically recession proof as a bad economy is not going to affect hospital visits.
2. Pharmaceuticals: this imo is the second best part of their business. They sell a lot of both over counter and prescribed drugs that is growing significantly in emerging markets. This company has a big footprint internationally which helps keeps them diversified. As the middle class continues to develop in emerging markets Abbott will be a huge beneficiary of this while also maintaining their position in already established markets like the US where a large middle class exists. On top of it as the population ages so to will the need for drugs will also increase which will benefit both this segment and the previous one. This segment has also seen nice growth over the use as all these things continue to play in.
Next we are going to talk about their weak segments and where most of the bearish sentiment comes from.
3. Nutrition: this segment mainly deals with baby formula and protein drinks. This segment makes up around 18% of the total business. Ensure is the top brand in this category as well as Similac. This segment has recently experienced earnings decline due to an overall broad consumer pushback on years of price hiking. We have seen this sector wide with companies like Pepsi, General Mills, Hershey, and many others. This is causing a decline in sales and earnings within this. On top of it there are currently lawsuits thats creating an extra level worry around their baby formula causing NEC in infants. These lawsuits have had mixed outcomes while some Plaintiffs have been able to win large sums while others have been dismissed. Federal trials are expected to start in May so its important to keep on eye this. This is a similar issue that both Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson had in the past.
4. Diagnostics: this segment is where a lot of risk is going to come from. This segment experienced significant growth around the pandemic due to Abbotts Covid-19 instant tests. Once the pandemic died off so to this part of the business which now declining. Abbott recently made the decision to purchase the company Exact Sciences for a $22 billion dollar enterprise value ($2 billion of debt). This money will come from debt and cash on hand. Abbott already has around $8 billion dollars of cash on hand and their total debt is only around $9 billion so while big they absolutely can afford to take this hit. Exact Sciences is a growing company within the cancer diagnostics fields that makes products like Cologuard and recently came out with Cancerguard. This is a big purchase and a gamble as it all depends on how well these products will continue to grow and how well Abbott can push these into the core business and stop the free fall going on this segment. It is worth pointing out that Abbott has done extremely well at integrating companies into their core business in the past. A good example being St. Judes Medical Devices which is now a significant money maker for the company.
In terms of financials the balance sheet is extremely healthy with no red flags. Sales, cash, and income continue to increase every year except 2025. However it’s important to mention that in 2024 Abbott received a huge amount of money due to tax reasons which greatly boosted their income and eps in 2024 so I would try to ignore because it is an outlier. The company currently trades at a 16x Ev/EBITDA multiple which is the cheapest it’s been in years. It is also a Dividend King meaning they have been increasing and paying a dividend every year for 50 years straight. With that kind of multiple for a stable steady growth company with these kinds of prospects and moat I think this is a high quality stock that is a buy.
I am curious to hear your thoughts on what you think. Thank you!
ABT는 EV/EBITDA 배수가 16배로 수년래 최저 수준이며, "배당 귀족"으로서 건전한 재무상태와 경기침체에 강한 의료기기, 제약 부문을 보유하고 있습니다. 시장은 단기 이슈(영양 사업부 소비자 반발, 팬데믹 이후 진단 사업부 하락)에 대해 과도하게 주가를 처벌하여, 안정적이고 성장하는 기업에 밸류에이션 갭을 만들고 있습니다. ABT는 장기 가치 및 배당 성장 투자자에게 매수할 만한 고품질 주식입니다. 현재 진행 중인 영유아 분유 소송이 영양 사업부에 타격을 주고 있으며, Exact Sciences의 대규모 인수 및 통합이 진단 사업부 안정화에 실패하고 있습니다.